https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/article/2025-nfl-free-agency-patriots-qb-joe-milton-may-have-the-leagues-strongest-arm-but-his-trade-market-probably-not-there-yet-041237775.html
Several months before the 2024 NFL Draft, I was having lunch with a personnel man at the league’s annual scouting combine when the conversation turned to that year’s bumper crop of quarterbacks. As we ticked down the list and debated variables for each player, which ultimately included six first-round QBs, he closed the conversation with a nugget.
“The strongest arm — one of the strongest arms I’ve ever seen — may not even get drafted until Day 3,” he said. “This guy’s arm is as good as [Buffalo Bills quarterback] Josh Allen and might actually be stronger.”
I didn’t need to hear the name. I knew he was talking about Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton, whose arm strength had been drawing buzz since his freshman year at Michigan. But the NFL chatter about Milton really started to ramp up coming out of the 2023 NFL Draft, following the meteoric rise of Anthony Richardson all the way to the No. 4 pick that year — largely due to Richardson’s elite athletic profile, size and a monster arm. Once Richardson raced up the draft board, a question began to percolate in the coming months about Milton, who had transferred to Tennessee and waited his turn behind Hendon Hooker. And that question was this: Given his similar size and athletic profile to Richardson, but with an even stronger arm, could Milton zoom his way to the top of the 2024 draft board?
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The answer was no. Not even close.
Instead, the 2024 class was jammed with elite quarterback talent, and Milton’s draft assessment among teams was harsh. Some detractors didn’t like his accuracy downfield or his ability to deliver an easily catchable ball. Others felt like he relied too much on his arm strength, and lacked touch and an ability to layer passes between coverages. Still others simply hated the simplicity and overall odd structure of Tennessee’s offense, which was also a criticism when Hooker was a draft prospect one season earlier. In turn, they questioned whether Milton was a high-level processor after six years of college football, or simply operated a scheme that had no real NFL application or pressures to read multi-faceted defenses.
The end result: Milton fell to the sixth round of the draft before the Patriots scooped him up, ultimately pairing him with the third overall pick (and future starter), Drake Maye.
A little more than 10 months later, this draft story has become something of a free agency story. One that began during the Senior Bowl in January, when a message began to filter its way to the front offices of NFL teams: After an encouraging rookie season that saw Milton play well in the preseason and then again during a season finale against the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots might be inclined to listen to offers on the soon-to-be 25-year-old backup. The same guy that team owner Robert Kraft referenced in a joke after the season when he mused that the Patriots “lucked out” and might “have two quarterbacks.”
Coming out of that Senior Bowl, though, it was clear: If the Patriots add a seasoned backup quarterback in the offseason to help support and develop Maye, it would be a sign that phone calls for Milton would be taken. Then came Monday, when the Patriots signed veteran backup Joshua Dobbs — considered one of the best preparation and support QBs in the league — to a two-year, $8 million deal. Just like that, the question turned to what it meant for Milton and whether or not there were trade suitors.
Tuesday, I reached out to multiple quarterback-needy teams as well as some personnel evaluators who did work on Milton a year ago. And the response I got was: It takes only one team to like him enough to trade for him, but not nearly enough has been shown to warrant a high draft pick in exchange.
As one AFC talent evaluator framed it: “He fell in the draft because the evaluations were what they were. What’s changed? It’s not like he was out there developing as a starter [last season].”
The answer, I replied, was that Milton had played well in exhibition snaps and then had a good outing against the Bills — albeit largely against backups in a game where Buffalo was prioritizing playoff health over a win. And then there is the Patriots’ assessment, which seems to be very positive of the talent and progress, given Kraft’s joke of having two quarterbacks.
“That’s their biased opinion. It’s not like other teams saw him practice every day,” the evaluator responded. “And the work done on him [as a draft prospect] is still pretty fresh.”
The evaluator’s skepticism was not isolated. A cross section of evaluators from high-level executives to scouts balked at the idea that Milton was now worth a second-round draft pick — or even a third-rounder — on the basis of one game where nothing was on the line for the opponent.
“Maybe another strong preseason will do it, but he went in sixth for a reason,” an NFC evaluator said.
“Two picks in the Senior Bowl game, not the best at reading defenses, despite a million-dollar smile and a huge arm,” a longtime high-level AFC executive said. “He couldn’t keep the job at Michigan, ran a simple system at UT. People don’t forget.”
I could repeat all of the assessments, but they were largely some version of the last two. With an emphasis on the reality that the Patriots might love him internally but there just isn’t enough on-field production right now to turn a sixth-round player that every single team passed on multiple times — including New England — into a second- or third-round pick.
That said, there remains the “only takes one” reality of the trade market.
As one evaluator said, “[The Indianapolis Colts] gave Daniel Jones one year [and] $14 million and he looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when he last played. … I would roll with Joe Milton before Daniel Jones.
“If [Patriots general manager] Eliot Wolf is like anything like his dad, then [Milton won’t be traded]. They will let him have another preseason like he did this past year and then deal him for a second-round pick or more when his stock is high.”
For now, it’s hard to find a team to make the case that such a peak is happening this offseason.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/article/2025-nfl-free-agency-patriots-qb-joe-milton-may-have-the-leagues-strongest-arm-but-his-trade-market-probably-not-there-yet-041237775.html
