NBA playoff picture: Who are Celtics’ most likely Round 1 opponents? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics have survived the winter doldrums, and meaningful spring basketball is right around the corner.
The 2025 NBA playoffs begin in just over a month, with 20 games remaining in the Celtics’ regular season after their matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night.
The bad news for Boston is that the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed is essentially out of reach, as the Cleveland Cavaliers hold an eight-game lead over the C’s. The good news is that Joe Mazzulla’s club has a firm hold on the No. 2 seed, with a three-game lead over the New York Knicks and the NBA’s second-easiest remaining schedule.
New York is worth monitoring in the rearview mirror, especially if the Celtics choose to rest key contributors down the stretch. But if they maintain the No. 2 seed, the C’s would play the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup in the East play-in tournament.
Which team might that be, you ask? Since the No. 7 through No. 10 seeds are relatively set in stone — the Detroit Pistons are four games clear of the Miami Heat in the No. 6 spot, while the Brooklyn Nets are 2.5 games behind the No. 10 seed Chicago Bulls — we already have a pretty clear picture of Boston’s potential playoff opponents.
Here’s a look at the current East playoff picture as well as each team’s probability to land the No. 7 seed, per Basketball Reference’s excellent “Playoff Probabilities Report,” whose results are based on 10,000 game simulations (including the play-in tournament).
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The Heat currently are the clear favorites to face the Celtics in the first round, with a 43.2 percent chance to earn the No. 7 seed. If that comes to fruition, it would mark the fourth straight postseason with a Boston-Miami matchup. (The Celtics beat the Heat in the 2022 East Finals, lost in the 2023 East Finals and dispatched Miami in five games of the first round last postseason).
The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks are Boston’s other two most likely opponents, with 25.8 percent and 24.4 percent odds, respectively, to land the No. 7 seed. Orlando and Atlanta are separated by a half game, so it’s essentially a toss-up which team would travel to Miami for the 7-8 play-in tournament matchup (assuming the Heat hold onto the seventh spot).
The Celtics may actually prefer facing the Heat, who have lost nine of their last 10 games against Boston (including playoffs) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Both the Magic and Hawks have taken games from the C’s this season, with Atlanta winning the season series 2-1 and Orlando tied 1-1 with Boston at the moment.
There’s much more to sort out over the final month-plus of the regular season, but Miami, Orlando and Atlanta are the teams to watch for C’s fans as the playoffs draw near.
