The NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror. The All-Star break is nigh. For teams chasing postseason glory, there is plenty of regular season left to finetune.
For the rest of the NBA? It’s high time to Capture the Flagg.
Cooper Flagg is the 18-year-old Duke phenom and the consensus No. 1 overall pick at this juncture of the season. The two-way star should still be in high school and yet can reasonably claim to be the best player in college hoops, averaging 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists for one of the top teams in the nation. The only NCAA player with a better Box Plus-Minus than Flagg is Auburn’s fifth-year senior Johni Broome, who is older than Alperen Şengün.
The NBA has tried to curb outright tanking for prospects like Flagg. Beginning in 2019, the league office capped odds at landing the No. 1 pick at 14 percent for the bottom three teams, removing the incentive to win the race to the bottom of the bottom.
But there are plenty of intriguing scenarios that will make the draft lottery must-see TV.
The best team in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder, could land the No. 1 overall pick. So could Victor Wembanyama’s club in San Antonio.
To see how, let’s take a dive into the lottery situation with about 30 games to go for each team. The strength of schedule data comes from Positive Residual’s handy metric that accounts for rest days, game location, altitude and team strength.
THE FIVE FLAGG FAVORITES
Washington Wizards (own pick)
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Current Record: 9-44 (Tied No. 1 in lottery odds)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14.0%
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Remaining SOS: .447 (2nd-easiest)
A quick stroll down memory lane. Remember in 2020, when the Washington Wizards sent John Wall and a 2023 first-round pick to the Houston Rockets for Russell Westbrook? Thank goodness the Wizards slapped some 2025 protections on that pick, because otherwise, this wouldn’t be theirs to select.
The first-round pick sent in that trade has not been conveyed because it was 1-14 protected in 2023, 1-12 protected in 2024 and 1-10 protected this year. The pick switched hands a couple times — the New York Knicks currently hold the rights to the protected first-round pick which will turn into two second-round picks if it lands inside the top-6 picks in the 2026 draft — and Wizards fans have to be thrilled the team put aggressive protections on it.
At 9-44, the Wizards have a solid chance at maintaining the 14 percent odds even though they play in the Eastern Conference and thus have the second-easiest schedule going forward. It will be interesting to see the active rosters for Washington and Utah when they face off twice in March.
New Orleans Pelicans (own)
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Current Record: 12-41 (Tied No. 1)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14.0%
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Remaining SOS: .513 (11th-hardest)
What a disastrous season. After the Dejounte Murray torn Achilles and the Brandon Ingram trade, the Pelicans ensured they’d never see the vaunted Murray-Ingram-Williamson trio play a single game together in New Orleans. Injuries continue to plague the Pelicans this season, with the franchise having lost a league-high $46.7 million worth of salary per day missed, per Spotrac.com.
Luckily for them, the Pelicans still have the full rights to their first-round pick, which is not something the Atlanta Hawks can say after they traded for Murray in 2022 (more on that later). Despite winning the Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson sweepstakes in 2012 and 2019, respectively, New Orleans hasn’t won a single playoff game with either of them in uniform. Maybe Flagg can change the tide in the Big Easy. With one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league, they could be atop the draft lottery come May.
Utah Jazz (own)
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Current Record: 12-40 (Tied No. 1)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14.0%
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Remaining SOS: .484 (12th-easiest)
The Jazz have never selected No. 1 in the draft during the team’s 51-year history dating back to their days in New Orleans. Could this be the year?
There’s an alternate universe in which this pick goes to, you guessed it, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Back in 2021, the Jazz paired a future first-round pick with Derrick Favors to Oklahoma City in order to take his money off the books. Utah’s front office was wise enough to put protections on it for picks 1-10 in the first two years of eligibility (2024, 2025) and 1-8 in the year after (2026). If the Jazz had only placed protections in Year 1, this would have been OKC’s pick to make.
Protections may not have seemed all that necessary at the time of the deal. Remember, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were still on the team and unlikely to be bad enough to make an unprotected future first-round pick all that valuable. Maybe they knew they’d make a hard pivot a year later.
Charlotte Hornets (own)
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Current Record: 13-38 (No. 4)
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Current No. 1 odds: 12.5%
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Remaining SOS: .526 (6th-hardest)
With new owners Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin taking over for Michael Jordan, winning the rights to the No. 1 overall pick to select Flagg, the in-state hero, could be the big splash the franchise so desperately needs.
Since taking Larry Johnson No. 1 overall in 1991, Charlotte has always been the bridesmaid, not the bride, when it comes to the NBA draft. The franchise picked second in the Victor Wembanyama draft, second in the Anthony Davis draft, second in the Dwight Howard draft, and second in the Shaquille O’Neal draft. In related news, the team hasn’t reached the Eastern Conference finals in its 35-year history.
Despite being in the East, the Hornets face a fairly tough schedule going forward, playing Boston, OKC and Cleveland a total of four times in their remaining slate, and a league-low 12 home games the rest of the way. The Wizards better watch their back.
Brooklyn Nets (own)
Cooper Flagg would quickly change what is currently the most anonymous team in the NBA. A week ago, a casual NBA fan might have wondered, “Wait, is that the team that Ben Simmons plays for now?” But even that is out the window now that the Nets waived him.
Apologies to D’Angelo Russell, but Brooklyn could use a new face of the franchise. By sending the No. 3 pick to Houston (Reed Sheppard) in last year’s draft as part of the ill-fated James Harden trade, the Nets will thankfully be in control of their first-rounder this season. If the team was still in New Jersey, I could see how landing Rutgers’ Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper might be seen as a soothing consolation to the Flagg sweepstakes. But this is all about the Duke kid.
TEAMS IN LOTTERY LIMBO
Toronto Raptors (own)
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Current Record: 17-37 (No. 5)
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Current No. 1 odds: 10.5%
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Remaining SOS: .421 (Easiest)
When Andrea Bargnani was your last No. 1 pick, I can understand why the Raptors might not be fully committed to the tank. Instead, by trading for Brandon Ingram and signing him to a three-year extension, they seem to be fully committed to being mid. After a surprisingly punchy January, the Raptors are back in the league’s basement, but a healthy Ingram can pull them back to somewhat competitive status.
Which … is that a good thing? Not if you’re trying to land the No. 1 pick. Wins could pile up considering that the Raptors have by far the easiest schedule in the NBA going forward, with only three of their final 22 matchups coming against winning ballclubs. Those three “winning” opponents: the 28-26 Pistons, the 27-26 Warriors and the 28-26 Mavs.
Philadelphia 76ers (own)
Can you imagine if the 76ers lost out on Cooper Flagg because they wanted to get off of Al Horford’s contract when Flagg was 13 years old? Thankfully for Philadelphia, that won’t happen. The Sixers owe this pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Horford salary-dump trade, but luckily implemented top-6 protection on the first-rounder. The Thunder could be realistically looking at a pick in the No. 7 to No. 10 range after winning the 2025 NBA Finals. If the pick doesn’t convey this season, it will roll over to 2026 and we do this all over again.
The Sixers haven’t pulled the plug on the season. Part of that calculus may have to do with their cupcake schedule going forward (seventh-easiest) and Joel Embiid finally being healthy enough to play. But even with the 2023 MVP in uniform, the Sixers are just 8-9 this season. At some point, they might have to consider shutting down Embiid and preserving his health. And their chances at capturing Flagg.
Chicago Bulls (own)
When the Bulls raise Derrick Rose’s jersey to the rafters, will they envision saving a spot for the team’s next No. 1 overall pick? We’ll see how the ping-pong balls shake out, but the Bulls have their work cut out for them. From last season’s team, they traded both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to Sacramento, and held on to Nikola Vucević at the deadline, seemingly having one foot in and one foot out of a full-blown reset.
Although president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas declared this week that the Bulls are “not okay with being in the middle” they’re in the thick of the standings and literally average in terms of strength of schedule going forward. That’s about where they were when they won the chance to draft Rose in 2008 — ninth.
Portland Trail Blazers (own)
What a turn of events. After a five-game losing streak, the Blazers surprised the NBA universe by going a league-best 10-1 over their next 11 games. An unlikely playoff run seemed to be on the horizon before they dropped their latest two games by a combined 45 points.
As someone who contributes to their broadcast, I totally understand anyone’s difficulty in pegging this team. With signature wins against Houston, Denver, Indiana, Milwaukee (twice) and Dallas, it’s anybody’s guess how the next two months go considering they’ve also lost to New Orleans, Utah and Brooklyn this season. Trekking against a tough schedule going forward, with five remaining games against Boston, OKC and Cleveland, it’ll be an uphill climb for Portland to make it out of the West play-in gauntlet.
THE TERRIFYING SCENARIOS
San Antonio Spurs (own and Atlanta)
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Current Record: 23-28 (No. 10)
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Current No. 1 odds: 3.0% (3% own + ATL’s)
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Remaining SOS: .530 (own), .476 (ATL)
Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg? Oh, it’s possible. Acquiring star point guard De’Aaron Fox will help the Spurs’ playoff odds even if it means it’ll hurt their chances at landing Flagg with their own pick. But good news for the Spurs: they can have the best of both worlds. A playoff run and a potential Flagg in the waiting.
Should the Spurs punch their playoff ticket and miss the lottery with their own pick, they can still land the No. 1 overall selection thanks to the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade. In that transaction, the Spurs received Danilo Gallinari and four first-round picks, including Atlanta’s unprotected 2025 pick.
Since the Murray trade this past summer, the Hawks have hovered just below .500 with plenty of opportunity to fall further. Most Improved Player candidate Jalen Johnson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in late January and the Hawks’ front office traded away two core members in De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanović at the deadline.
After a three-game win streak, the Hawks have improbably remained in the playoff hunt. By playing in the Eastern Conference, the Hawks can only fall so far in the draft lottery. The Spurs, however, out West, have a tougher strength of schedule. They could feasibly fall to No. 7 in draft lottery odds, which would bring a 7.5% chance at the top pick. In the two best-case scenarios, the Spurs would stack their odds and have a combined 13.5 percent chance at No. 1. Yes, basically the same odds as having the worst record in the NBA, which is capped at 14.0 percent.
The Spurs hope that Atlanta wins the lottery for the second year in a row which has happened more often than you think. The Cleveland Cavaliers did it in 2013 (Andrew Wiggins, traded to Minny for Kevin Love) and 2014 (Anthony Bennett). In 1992 and 1993, the Orlando Magic picked first to get Shaquille O’Neal and Chris Webber, the latter of whom they traded to Golden State for Anfernee Hardaway and three firsts.
Yeah, a Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama frontcourt is in play. You thought the Tim Duncan and David Robinson combo was a legendary frontline. Can you imagine if Flagg and Wemby played their entire careers together?
OKC Thunder (Philadelphia’s and LA Clippers’)
Flagg joining the MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-Star Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is also not out of the question. Yes, the Thunder have Philadelphia’s first-round pick this season, but it is top-6 protected, meaning it will only convey to OKC if it lands outside the top half-dozen slots on draft lottery night. Simply put, OKC can’t win the Flagg sweepstakes with Philly’s pick.
But the Thunder have another sneaky shot at the No. 1 pick: the LA Clippers.
In the 2019 Paul George trade, the Thunder netted the rights to swap the Clippers’ first-round pick in 2025, which, as of now, has a 21 percent chance of landing in the lottery, per dunksandthrees.com projections. Currently, the Clippers occupy the precious No. 6 seed in the West, but there are four other teams within three games of that slot and the Clippers have a nasty remaining schedule. If they don’t lock in a playoff spot at the No. 6 seed, they are a bad play-in tournament away from handing OKC a literal lottery ticket. And given James Harden’s age and the injury history to Kawhi Leonard, a late-season tailspin isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
As an aside, in trading a boatload of picks to OKC for George, did the Clippers not learn their lesson from 2011? That year, the Clippers packaged their unprotected 2011 first-round pick to Cleveland to acquire Mo Williams and shed salary. The Clippers finished 32-50, giving them the eighth-best odds to “win” the lottery. And that, my friends, is how the Cavs landed Duke’s one-and-done phenom with the No. 1 overall pick, Kyrie Irving. Will Clippers history repeat itself?
Houston Rockets (via Phoenix)
The Rockets are another top team that could plausibly land Flagg this summer thanks to the Phoenix Suns’ continued mediocrity. It went a little under the radar, but this past June the Rockets acquired the Nets’ 2025 swap rights with Phoenix in a rare trade involving just draft picks.
That’s a low-key valuable draft asset once you consider that the Suns have the hardest schedule in the NBA going forward with a collective win percentage of .545. The Rockets can help their Flagg chances on Wednesday, the first of three remaining games against the teetering Suns. Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia paying $366 million in payroll (with tax) to miss the playoffs and watch a West rival add Flagg with the Suns’ pick would be an all-time fumble.
Other potential playoff/play-in teams to monitor that could get in the Flagg Sweepstakes: Miami (lottery protected), Golden State (top-10 protected), Dallas, Sacramento (top-12 protected), Detroit (top-13 protected), Orlando.
