The NHL 4 Nations Face-Off break is now upon us – a great time to glance at some of the Ottawa Senators’ off-ice matters. With the NHL trade deadline less than a month away (March 7), decisions on players with expiring contracts will soon need to be made, especially among pending unrestricted free agents. We looked at those last week.
Today, we examine what might happen with player who are scheduled to become restricted free agents, a list that includes goaltender Leevi Merilainen.
Forwards:
Noah Gregor: A replaceable spare part player who brings speed, good penalty killing, and the rare highlight-reel backhand or breakaway goal. He’s fit in well, but with 6 points in 35 games, a 27% Goals For percentage, and a sub-50% Corsi rating, he’s a prime candidate to be overtaken by emerging younger players. He’s the kind of guy who could be useful in a hard-fought playoff series.
In play at the trade deadline? Yes, but the team won’t actively shop him either.
Likelihood he stays: 25%
Predicted contract: One year, league minimum, likely elsewhere.
Defense:
Tyler Kleven
Kleven has had a quiet introduction as a full-time NHL player, which is exactly what you want from a young stay-at-home defenseman. The left-handed anchor on the third pairing is taking care of business in his own end, despite a rotating cast of partners on the right side. He brings nearly zero offense, but he’s a useful and mobile player, and at just 23 years old, he has plenty of runway to grow further into his role.
You’d like to see a little more physicality in his game given the tools he has, but that may still come as he continues to do good work with positioning and winning puck battles. He’s not going anywhere.
In play at the trade deadline? No
Likelihood he stays: 100%
Predicted contract: Two years, $1.5 million per season.
Donovan Sebrango
A likable and young tweener from the Ottawa area who’s easy to root for. Injuries have given him a shot in the lineup, and he didn’t look out of place in his one game in the team’s recent 6-5 shootout thriller against the Bruins. The team will bring him along as a depth option with a higher ceiling. He’ll likely be counted on in Belleville for a few more seasons yet to come, but his place in the organization is likely cemented for the foreseeable future.
In play at the trade deadline? No
Likelihood he stays: 90%
Predicted contract: Two-year, two-way contract.
Jacob Bernard-Docker
The likable yet enigmatic JBD has likely run out of chances with this organization and could benefit from a fresh start. He’s an RFA with arbitration rights and does carry some value as a bottom-pair D. Bernard-Docker has no major holes in his game but no noticeable strengths either. Our guess is the team will tender a qualifying offer but trade him in the offseason.
In play at the trade deadline? Yes, but a recent injury will likely make other teams wary.
Likelihood he stays: 20%
Predicted contract: Another one- or two-year deal at league minimum, likely elsewhere.
Nikolas Matinpalo
The hulking 26-year-old has been a nice surprise as an injury fill-in and a good fit with Kleven on the bottom pair. He’s staked a nice claim for a more permanent spot in the 6-7 role, supplanting Hamonic and JBD as the most reliable option in that spot. He brings zero offense, but his above-50% Corsi shows he’s taking care of business effectively by being a beast in the corners and clearing out the slot in front of his goalies. He has arbitration rights, but it should be an easy negotiation.
In play at the trade deadline? No
Likelihood he stays: 90%
Predicted contract: Two years at league minimum.
Goalies:
Leevi Merilainen
We’ve saved the most interesting for last. The 22-year-old started the season as a good prospect and fourth-string goalie for the team but has kicked down the doors and put the entire NHL on notice with his stellar play and unshakeable poise.
In 12 games, Merilainen has a team-leading three shutouts (four regulation shutouts), a 1.99 GA, and a .925 save percentage. The goalie of the future has staked his claim in the present, and everything seems to line up for him to be the backup/platoon goalie with Ullmark for years to come.
Of course, the NHL goalie graveyard is filled with Jim Careys, Andrew Raycrofts, and Andrew Hammonds, who all burned brightly as rookies until the rest of the league figured them out. Merilainen’s recent stretch probably saved the Senators’ season, and now that they’ve gone 0-3 since demoting him to Belleville last week, there’s no shortage of second-guessing going on right now.
But goaltending is voodoo, and the team will want to tread carefully before committing long-term for big bucks. The sample size remains impressive, but still small. Fortunately for the Senators, negotiations with Merilainen should be straightforward. This will be his first one-way, big-league contract with a few years before UFA eligibility, and he will share the crease with an $8.25 million superstar who’s signed for the next 4.5 seasons.
In play at the trade deadline? No
Likelihood he stays: 100%
Predicted contract: One to two years, $1.5 million per.
