Matchups to watch in Super Bowl LIX: Eagles defense vs. Chiefs offense

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Matchups to watch in Super Bowl LIX: Eagles defense vs. Chiefs offense originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

NEW ORLEANS — The Eagles are facing the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, Feb. 9 at the Superdome in New Orleans.

This is a rematch of Super Bowl LVII in Arizona. The Chiefs rallied back from a 10-point halftime deficit to win that one 38-35 and repeated as Super Bowl champs last year. The Eagles are looking to prevent a three-peat.

We already looked at the matchups to watch when the Eagles’ offense is on the field. Today, we’ll look at the matchups when the Eagles’ defense is out there:

Vic Fangio vs. Patrick Mahomes

By now you’ve probably heard the stat that Mahomes is 8-0 in his career against Fangio and that’s true. But that doesn’t really tell the full story. Mahomes beat the Broncos six times when Fangio was the head coach in Denver and beat the Dolphins twice (once in the regular season, once in the playoffs) when Fangio was the DC there in 2023.

In those eight games, the offense facing Mahomes and the Chiefs averaged just 11.9 points per game. Those offenses were quarterbacked (in chronological order) by Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Lock, Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Lock, Tua Tagovailoa, Tagovailoa.

And it’s not even like Mahomes went crazy. In those eight games, he completed 162/252 passes (64.3%) for 1,835 yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. That’s a passer rating of 95.9, which is actually below Mahomes’ career passer rating of 102.1.

That’s not to say Mahomes isn’t dangerous or isn’t a great player — he obviously is. But the talk of him owning Fangio isn’t really accurate. And Fangio’s defense in 2024 is way better than those units from Denver and Miami.

When the Eagles played Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII, they were in man coverage on 53.3% of his dropbacks and he completed 13 of 15 attempts for 93 yards and 3 touchdowns against it, per NextGen Stats. But that was against Jonathan Gannon. This time, Fangio will likely have a different plan. And it should also look different than what Fangio did against Mahomes in the playoffs last year. When he was still with the Dolphins, Fangio used Cover 0 on 18 dropbacks, which was likely because the Dolphins were decimated at the edge rusher spot.

Aside from the obvious, the Eagles have to be ready for Mahomes to use his legs. In Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes scrambled 3 times for 48 yards, per NextGen Stats. In these playoffs, Mahomes has scrambled 10 times on 66 dropbacks and scrambled 6 times for 41 yards in the AFC Championship Game.

Eagles safeties and LBs vs. Travis Kelce

Speaking of scramble plays, that’s an area where the connection between Mahomes and Travis Kelce really pays off. These two have played together for a long time and always seem to be on the same page. According to NextGen Stats, Kelce leads all NFL players in receptions (61), receiving yards (933) and receiving touchdowns (10) on scramble plays since 2018.

The Eagles were really good against tight ends in the regular season, giving up fewer yards to opposing tight ends than any team in the NFL. Opposing tight ends in 2024 had 68 catches for 591 yards and 5 touchdowns against them.

In the NFC Championship Game, though, former Eagle Zach Ertz had a big game with 11 catches for 104 yards. But that was a Washington team with Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown and other vertical threats. Not that the Eagles wanted Ertz to have a 100-yard game but he probably wasn’t the primary focus of the defense like Kelce should be this week.

Kelce is 35 now and even though he was named to his 10th consecutive Pro Bowl, the future Hall of Famer slowed down in 2024. He still had 97 catches but they went for just 823 yards. That average of 8.5 yards per reception is the lowest of his career and this was the first time he ever dipped below 10.0. He also caught just 3 touchdowns in the regular season. In these playoffs, Kelce has 9 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown in 2 games. After a huge 7/117/1 game against the Texans, Kelce was held in check against the Bills with just 2 catches on 4 targets for 19 yards.

In this game, expect to see some combination of the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties on Kelce. This could be a big moment for C.J. Gardner-Johnson in coverage. The Chiefs would probably like to get Kelce matched up on linebackers. In the playoffs, Kelce has caught 5 of 5 targets against linebackers for 98 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles’ linebackers have been great in coverage this season, giving up just 5.6 yards per target this year, which ranked No. 1 in the NFL.

Even though Kelce might not be as dynamic as he once was, there’s no doubt that in a Super Bowl, Mahomes is going to look his way.

Cooper DeJean vs. Xavier Worthy

While Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver in the playoffs with 136 yards, Xavier Worthy is right behind him with 11 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. The next closest player on the list is JuJu Smith-Schuster with 60 yards. Worthy, the rookie from Texas, had his best game of the season in the AFC Championship Game with 6 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

In the playoffs, Worthy has lined up in the slot on 49% of his offensive snaps. That means plenty of opportunities against Cooper DeJean, who has been one of the best defensive rookies in the NFL this season.

In the playoffs, Andy Reid is getting Worthy on the move. Worthy has gone in motion on 33.7% of his snap sin the playoffs after a motion rate of 18.2% in the regular season. One thing that has really stood out about DeJean this season IS his eyes. He has been very good at not getting lost in the sauce and he’ll have an opportunity to show that again in the biggest game of his life.

Nolan Smith vs. Jawaan Taylor

It’s amazing how quickly Nolan Smith has become the Eagles’ best edge rusher. The second-year first-round pick got off to a slow start in 2024 and didn’t have a single sack, quarterback hit or tackle for loss in his first four games. In the 15 games since, Smith has 10 1/2 sacks and has been the Eagles’ most productive edge player. In three playoff games, Smith already has 4.0 sacks. Brandon Graham is the Eagles’ all-time leader in playoff sacks in a career with 5 1/2 in 11 games but Smith already has 4 1/2 in 4 games.

And Smith should have a chance to make a big play in Super Bowl LIX against Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor. While the Chiefs shuffled their left side of the line this season, Taylor has been their right tackle all season and PFF ranked him 62nd out of 81 qualified tackles. In 18 games this year, Taylor gave up a team-high 41 pressures and 7 sacks. Just seven tackles in the NFL gave up more pressures than Taylor this season.

Another area to watch in the Super Bowl is the interior of the Chiefs offense line. While Joe Thuney has really saved Kansas City by bumping out to left tackle and giving them strong play, that has left the Chiefs a little more susceptible to pressure inside.

Since going to their current OL in Week 15 (Thuney, Mike Caliendo, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Taylor) the Chiefs’ interior OL has allowed a pressure rate of 9.0%, per NextGen Stats, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. Before Week 15, their interior pressure rate was 5.1% and top five in the league. So look for Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo and even Jordan Davis to have an opportunity for game-changing plays.

Smith is a really good right guard but it might not be wise to leave him 1-on-1 against Carter. So if Humphrey slides that way, then that leaves Williams or Ojomo with 1-on-1s against Caliendo. That’s a mismatch.

Eagles tacklers vs. Kareem Hunt

The Chiefs don’t have a very dynamic running back. Their top back in the playoffs has been Kareem Hunt. Isiah Pacheco is back from injury but is clearly the No. 2 back. Hunt in two playoff games has 25 carries for 108 yards and Pacheco has 10 for 30.

Even though the Chiefs don’t run all that well, the Eagles will still want to take away the run to make their offense as one-dimensional as possible. The Eagles just need to make sure they wrap-up on Hunt.

During the playoffs, Hunt has forced 11 missed tackles on 25 carries for a rate of 44%, per NextGen Stats. That’s way higher than his regular season rate of 19.6%. The Eagles have been a pretty good tackling team for most of this year and they’ll need that to continue in the Super Bowl.

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