No two NHL rebuilds are the same. They aren’t linear, and there is no proven successful blueprint.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Anaheim Ducks had the fourth-longest playoff drought in the league (six years), behind the Ottawa Senators (seven years), Detroit Red Wings (eight years), and Buffalo Sabres (13 years).
Ducks’ Cronin Not Worried About Job Security
One or two of those droughts may end this season, as the Red Wings and Senators are firmly in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race 51 games into their 2024-25 campaigns.
Teams in the Ducks’ stage of their rebuilds need to see improvement in at least one of three areas: standings (playing more meaningful games late in the season), process (playing competitive games against quality competition on a nightly basis), and (most importantly) progression of the young core.
51 games into the 2024-25 season, the Ducks have failed across the board. They are in 28th of 32 teams in the overall NHL standings (21-24-6) and have only three more regulation wins than at this time in 2023-24, they’re 31st in expected goals for percentage (43.67%) at 5v5, and six of their eight U25 skaters have statistically underperformed and/or regressed.
Ducks head coach Greg Cronin isn’t concerned at all when it comes to how his stable of young players have performed.
“I think they’re progressing fine. You obviously attach stats to progression. I understand that. It’s a logical assumption they should have more points or the progression is measured by point totals,” Cronin said when asked for his response to the underwhelming production. “It’s a rebuild and you’re developing players and they’re trying to learn to play on both sides of the puck. When that happens, there’s going to be an attention to playing defense as well.
“I think our guys, through the eyes of a coach, our guys are developing well. I think their habits have become increasingly better. One of the things you’ll hear a lot of coaches talk about is that you win games on defense. Usually, when you establish those defensive habits, it takes time. When they do that in a natural way, their offensive game will take off.”
|
Leo Carlsson |
.53 (12-17=29, 55) |
.36 (9-7=16, 45) |
|
Mason McTavish |
.66 (19-23=42, 64) |
.58 (12-14=26, 45) |
|
Cutter Gauthier |
NCAA |
.41 (8-13=21, 51) |
|
Trevor Zegras |
.48 (6-9=15, 31) |
.45 (5-8=13, 29) |
|
Jackson LaCombe |
.24 (2-15=17, 71) |
.55 (9-15=24, 44) |
|
Pavel Mintyukov |
.44 (4-24=28, 63) |
.26 (4-7=11, 43) |
|
Olen Zellweger |
.35 (2-7=9, 26) |
.32 (4-8=12, 38) |
|
Drew Helleson |
AHL |
.28 (2-5=7, 25) |
Trevor Zegras (23) has seen his per-game production decrease significantly since his first two seasons in the NHL, where he averaged .81 points per game and .80 points per game. Since Cronin was hired ahead of the 2023-24 season, Zegras is averaging .47 points per game. Cronin believes if he and the younger players continue to play astute defensive hockey, their point totals will increase.
“I don’t think anybody that’s an intelligent hockey person wouldn’t recognize that Trevor Zegras’ game on both sides of the puck has changed dramatically in the last six months, a year, whatever it’s been,” Cronin said. “I think he’ll say it himself and for me, that’s a reflection of how hard the coaching staff is working to get these guys to play a balanced game”
Jackson LaCombe (24) is the most glaring outlier when it comes to the young core, as he is the only U25 skater to have taken a tremendous step in his development.
“Everybody points to Jackson LaCombe. Well, Jackson LaCombe is a couple years older than (Pavel) Mintyukov and (Olen) Zellweger and (Tristan) Luneau,” Cronin said. “That’s Mother Nature’s dial turning that one. He’s two years older than those guys and had a good, really good college career.
“There’s a level of maturity, physically and mentally, that he’s got an advantage on the younger guys. He’s had a massive improvement. A lot of that is mental and comfort level with the NHL.”
Pavel Mintyukov (21) was the 2022-23 OHL Defenseman of the Year, scoring 88 points in 67 games for the Saginaw Spirit and Ottawa 67’s. The former first-round pick (10th overall in 2022) played 63 games as a rookie in 2023-24 and notched 28 points.
“Minty’s a work in progress,” Cronin said of his prized sophomore defenseman. “He still sees himself as an offensive guy, which he should do because he’s got an offensive history. Again, it goes back to the value system. I think the more that he values playing defense, and he knows exactly what he needs to do. Brent Thompson does a great job with him, has a really good relationship with him, and tries to educate him on when to get up the ice offensively and when not to.
“I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really focus on his offense because that’s gonna come naturally, I try to focus on his defensive awareness and his commitment to being on the good side of puck battles.”
Olen Zellweger was the WHL Defenseman of the Year in 2021-22 and 2022-23, winning CHL Defenseman of the Year honors in the latter season. He was an AHL All-Star as a rookie in 2023-24, scoring 37 points in 44 games before he was called up to Anaheim to finish the campaign.
He’s served as a healthy scratch in 11 of the Ducks’ last 17 games and hasn’t seen the scoresheet since Dec. 22, 2024.
“He’s a good teammate,” Cronin said. “He works hard. He’s doing what he has to do to get back in (the lineup). He’s ready to go and when he gets his opportunity, he’ll do well.”
The progression of Anaheim’s young roster players compared to those from other teams that have been drafting in similar positions at the top of the draft over the past five seasons is concerning.
As frustrated as Connor Bedard is reported to be in Chicago, he has 45 points in 51 games for the Blackhawks. Alex Vlasic is playing nearly 24 shutdown minutes per game and Frank Nazar has five points in his last six games.
The Columbus Blue Jackets hold the second wild card spot, with Adam Fantilli scoring 14 points in his last 13 games, Kent Johnson scoring .86 points per game, Dmitri Voronkov scoring .79, and Kirill Marchenko scoring 1.04.
In Montreal, the Habs are firmly in the Eastern wild card race and have seen Lane Hutson emerge as a Calder Trophy favorite with 39 points in 51 games, Cole Caufield score at a 40-goal pace, and Juraj Slafkovsky maintain a nearly identical scoring rate (.60 points per game) to his 2023-24 campaign (.61).
Though the San Jose Sharks sit at the bottom of the NHL standings again, Macklin Celebrini is the Calder favorite with 37 points in 42 games, William Eklund is on pace to score 13 more points (58) than he did in his rookie season last year (45), and after a slow start, rookie forward Will Smith is riding a six-game point streak, with seven points over that stretch.
While the Ducks’ young core is making progress when it comes to the intangible aspects of their games like battling, 1v1 defending, attention to detail, etc., most aren’t displaying the offensive firepower or creativity they had in previous seasons.
If the Ducks are unable to ignite the offensive games of their most offensively gifted young pieces, they are in danger of seeing their rebuild stagnate and seeing astonishing potentials go unreached.
