Eagles-Commanders matchups to watch in NFC Championship Game

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Eagles-Commanders matchups to watch in NFC Championship Game originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The No. 2-seeded Eagles are hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday at 3 p.m. at the Linc.

These two NFC East teams split their two matchups during the regular season. The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 in Philly in Week 11. The Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in Week 16 in Washington.

That second game got chippy so this is a much-anticipated rematch.

Let’s get to the matchups:

Vic Fangio vs. Jayden Daniels

The Eagles don’t need any reminders of how dangerous Jayden Daniels can be. The last time these two teams met in Week 16, Daniels threw five touchdown passes, including three in the fourth quarter to give the Commanders a 36-33 win in Washington. The Eagles definitely missed Jalen Hurts after he was knocked out of the game early but that didn’t have any effect on the Eagles’ defense in the fourth quarter getting roasted by Daniels. In that fourth quarter back in Week 16, Daniels completed 12 of 17 passes for 139 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. He had a passer rating of 110.0 in that quarter and finished off the comeback by hitting Jamison Crowder in the end zone with six seconds left.

Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 all-time in conference championship games but Daniels is a really good player and the Eagles have to be ready for him.

The Eagles played Daniels very differently in their two meetings this season. In Week 11, they barely blitzed him and in Week 16, they tried to heat him up a little bit. Here are the numbers from NFL NextGent Stats:

Week 11: 12.5% blitz rate

Week 16: 35.6% blitz rate

The Eagles got pressure by blitzing but it didn’t really work either. Daniels was sacked just once in that game and threw for five touchdowns.

“He’s a young quarterback by birth certificate, not by the tape,” Fangio said. “You know, the guy is playing extremely well. You can tell how much they think he’s playing so good-bye the volume of their offense and the things they trust him to do. He’s come through for them in a big way, and he’s tough to handle.”

In addition to his ability as a passer, the Eagles also have to be ready for Daniels to create with his legs, especially with scrambles. Like most right-handed quarterbacks, Daniels prefers to scramble to his right so the Eagles should try to funnel him back to his non-dominant side, which is easier said than done. It can be demoralizing for a defense to think they have a drive stopped only for a QB to scamper for a first down.

Jalen Carter vs. backup right guard

In the divisional round game, Jalen Carter had what was perhaps his best game in the NFL. Against the Rams, Carter had 5 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits, 1 PBU and a forced fumble. On the final two defensive plays of the game, Carter had a sack on third down and then a pressure on the final incompletion. Carter this season has really come into his own and he’s been one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. He was named to his first-career Pro Bowl and was a second-team All-Pro.

Against the Rams, Carter left the field just twice and was double-teamed on 26 of his 49 pass rushes, per NextGen Stats. You can probably expect that to continue in the championship game, especially because he’ll be seeing a backup. Commanders right guard Sam Cosmi is out for the season after tearing his ACL in Detroit in the divisional round. That’s a huge loss for Washington because Cosmi had done a nice job on Carter. Cosmi this season was PFF’s No. 23-ranked offensive guard and he allowed just two pressures in two games against the Eagles this season.

Cosmi’s replacement for this game will likely be Trent Scott, who has pretty much been the Commanders’ sixth offensive lineman this season. Scott played in 17 games this season and started one. After Cosmi left the game, Scott played well in his 45 snaps against the Lions. He had 19 pass blocking reps and didn’t give up a single pressure, according to ProFootballFocus. This season, in 142 pass blocking reps, Scott gave up 7 pressures.

You can probably expect the Commanders to give Scott help with Carter, which should free up some 1-on-1s for Milton Williams. This season, Williams has done a really good job of beating 1-on-1s — he’s going to get paid this offseason.

Eagles linebackers vs. Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler

The Eagles didn’t have to deal with Austin Ekeler in that Week 16 games but he gave them fits back in Week 11. In the first matchup, Ekeler had 8 catches for 89 yards and put some stress on their defense. With Robinson, it’s about slowing him down in the run game. With Ekeler, it’s about making sure he doesn’t make plays through the air.

In their two games against the Commanders this year, the Eagles have done a nice job against Robinson. In those two games, he has a total of 26 carries for 87 yards (3.3) and a touchdown. The Commanders in that Week 16 game had their second-lowest rushing success rate of the season (26.7%), per NextGen Stats.

Against the Rams, the Eagles started Oren Burks next to Zack Baun in the middle of the defense. Nakobe Dean is out for the rest of the playoffs after suffering a torn patellar tendon in the wild-card round. Burks played well in the divisional round and has presumably earned another start in this game. Even though Burks played well, it’ll still be worth seeing if Kliff Kingsbury tries to go at the backup.

Eagles CBs vs. Terry McLaurin

Daniels has been spreading the ball around plenty in the playoffs and Dyami Brown is actually the Commanders’ leading receiver in their two postseason games. But Terry McLaurin is still the most dangerous receiver they have. McLaurin this season had 82 catches for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. Him and Daniels really found a rhythm together.

In the playoffs, Brown has 11 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown, while McLaurin has 11/176/2. They’re both playing really well right now. And even though Jamison Crowder and Olamide Zaccheus have been quiet in the playoffs, both of them made plays against the Eagles in Week 16.

This is a fun matchup between Kingsbury’s high-flying offense and the best passing defense in the NFL. The Eagles gave up just 174.2 passing yards per game in the regular season. They have given up 195 and 291 in the last two games but have made enough plays to win.

For the most part, McLaurin lines up as the left wide receiver and Brown has been lining up on the right. That sets up McLaurin vs. Quinyon Mitchell and Brown vs. Darius Slay. Mitchell left the Rams game with a shoulder injury and was replaced by veteran Isaiah Rodgers. We’ll keep an eye on Mitchell’s status this week.

Eagles safeties vs. Zach Ertz

The Commanders’ second-leading receiver this season? It was our old buddy Zach Ertz, who finished the year with 66 catches for 654 yards and 7 touchdowns. Ertz didn’t have a huge game in Week 16 — which Nick Sirianni apparently reminded him of after the game for some reason — with just 1 catch for 12 yards. But in the first meeting, Ertz was targeted 7 times and had 6 catches for 47 yards and a touchdown.

In these playoffs, Ertz has had 7 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. And in his career, Ertz has had some success in the postseason. With the Eagles in seven career playoff games, Ertz had 33 catches for 360 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was the game-winner in Super Bowl LII.

The Eagles have been pretty good against tight ends all season. In fact, the Eagles gave up the fewest yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL in 2024. They gave up 68 catches on 103 targets for 591 yards and 5 touchdowns. In the playoffs, they held Tucker Kraft to 5 catches for 26 yards in the Packers game, but in the divisional round, Tyler Higbee had 7 for 54 and a touchdown.

Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders’ run defense

The Commanders might not be able to stop Saquon Barkley. Heck, there might not be any team that can stop Barkley.

In the snow last week, Barkley set an Eagles franchise record with 205 rushing yards on 26 carries. He also had two touchdowns — one from 62 and one from 78. He’s just 148 yards passing Terrell Davis, who owns the record for most rushing yards in a regular season + postseason. He could very well do that in this game; he has had success against the Commanders:

Week 11: 26 carries, 146 yards, 2 TDs

Week 16: 29 carries, 150 yards, 2 TDs

The Commanders did a good job against Barkley in the second half in that Week 16 game. In the first half, Barkley had 13 carries for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns; in the second half, Barkley had 16 for 17 yards.

Still, the Commanders don’t have a great run defense and the Eagles’ run game is so unique because of how explosive it is. Even if the Eagles were to fall behind on Sunday, they shouldn’t feel the need to abandon the run. They can get it back in a hurry.

This season, the Commanders allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (13.2%) in the NFL and the most yards before contact (1.9) per carry, per NextGen Stats. (Although having a healthy Jonathan Allen should help.)

The Eagles this season averaged 2.17 yards before contact per carry, which ranked third in the NFL. The Eagles’ offensive line is great at creating big holes and Barkley is better than anyone at hitting them and creating explosive plays. Against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop those things all season, this could be another big day for No. 26.

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith vs. Commanders’ CBs

The Eagles have been a run-heavy team for most of the season and now into the playoffs but they still have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. In the postseason, Brown has been noticeably quiet. He had just 3 catches on 10 targets for 24 yards and had 2 very uncharacteristic drops in the divisional round. Brown has been dealing with a knee injury and it’s hard to know just how much that’s really bothering him. Smith has been steady; he has 8 catches for 76 yards.

In this game, the Eagles will face a Commanders group of cornerbacks that has benefitted from the deadline trade to bring in Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans. The Commanders have Lattimore and rookie Mike Sainristil as their outside cornerbacks and have been playing Noah Igbinoghene in the slot. In the divisional round, Lattimore was on the right, Sainristil on the left and Igbinoghene in the slot. So the Eagles can pick and choose their matchups if that stays the same in the NFC Championship Game.

It’ll be interesting to see how much man coverage the Eagles face in this game. According to NextGen Stats, Jalen Hurts saw man coverage on 40% of his dropbacks against the Commanders and saw it on 30.7% of his other opponents. Hurts this season averaged 9.6 yards per attempt against man this season, which led the NFL and was the most of any QB since 2021. He also had 12 touchdowns and 1 interception when facing man coverage.

Jalen Hurts vs. pocket awareness

In the divisional round game, Hurts suffered a knee injury when his left leg got bent under him awkwardly. While he was able to stay in the game and didn’t miss any snaps, it was clear that Hurts wasn’t as mobile in the fourth quarter as he normally is. That definitely played a role in some of the sacks he took later in that game.

The Eagles obviously have to game-plan this week based on Hurts’ health.

“Everything is always accounted for,” Sirianni said. “You try to account for everything. That’s our job as coaches. When you get out there in the game, these guys have to make split-second decisions. And that’s us as coaches, too. We have to make split-second decisions.

“So the prep that you’re doing all week tries to account for everything that you could encounter, from whether Jalen can go, run, or not, whether it’s snowing, whether it’s raining, whether it’s windy, whether they’ve got this player on the other side or that player on the other side, or you’re without this player, or you’re without that player, how many times you’ve played the team. All those things are accounted for. That’s our job as coaches throughout the week, to make sure all those things are accounted for.”

Hurts against the Rams ended up getting sacked seven times and it wasn’t like his offensive line was awful. They probably didn’t have their best game in pass protection but sometimes the ball needs to get out. Sirianni did point out that the net passing yards (just 65 on Sunday) don’t account for the times where Hurts is able to scramble and pick up yards on pass plays. That’s true. But he might not be as effective doing that in this game because of the injury.

Dallas Goedert vs. linebackers and safeties

The Eagles’ passing offense hasn’t been great in the playoffs so far but Dallas Goedert is still getting his targets. He leads the Eagles in the playoffs with 8 catches on 10 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. Goedert played in Week 11 against the Commanders, catching 5 passes for 61 yards. But he missed the Week 16 rematch. Getting him in the rubber match between these two teams is a big deal.

And it goes beyond his ability as a receiver.

“Dallas has done an incredible job in the run game,” offensive coordinator Kellen Moore said. “Want to highlight how important he has been in the run game.”

While the Eagles got some production out of Grant Calcaterra in the passing game when Goedert was out, they really missed Goedert’s contributions in the run game. Check out this stat from NextGen: The Eagles have averaged 6.3 yards per designed run with Goedert on the field and just 4.7 yards per designed run without him this season.

Jordan Mailata, Lane Johnson vs. Dante Fowler, Dorance Armstrong Jr.

The Commanders finished the regular season with 43 sacks, ranking them tied for 11th in the NFL. Dante Fowler led the way with 10 1/2, linebacker Frankie Luvu had 8 and Dorance Armstrong Jr. had 5. In the playoffs, the Commanders have 3 sacks in 2 games and Armstrong has 2 1/2 of them.

Armstrong had a 2-sack day against the Lions in the divisional round. The Commanders in that game had 17 pressures on 46 dropbacks and had their second-lowest blitz rate (17.4%) of the season. So they were getting home with their front. Jonathan Allen led the way with 4 pressures so his matchup against the interior will be worth watching too.

On the edges, Armstrong mostly lines up on the left side of the defense, setting up a matchup against Lane Johnson. Fowler mostly lines up on the right side of the defense, setting up a matchup against Jordan Mailata. The Eagles have two of the best offensive tackles in the NFL and the best overall line in the NFL. If they dominate up front, it will be a big boost.

https://sports.yahoo.com/eagles-commanders-matchups-watch-nfc-070000798.html