https://sports.yahoo.com/dfs-stacking-report-2025-nfl-142814803.html
Fantasy football doesn’t end with Week 18. For those (like me) whose self worth hinges on being able to predict player usage and game outcomes, there are daily fantasy contests.
Below is a look at how one might create so-called game stacks: Multiple players from one of this weekend’s two games whose statistical upside would correlate nicely. In other words, if one team scores a bunch of points, the other team must at least try to respond with a bunch of points, usually with a pass-heavy game script.
If you suspect a quarterback and one or two of his pass catchers will have a big day, throwing in a correlated pass catcher from the opposing offense makes sense, and in many ways, makes thing easier. If the first thing happens (your QB-WR stack goes berserk), there’s a decent chance the second thing (a TE or WR on the other team sees a lot of targets) will happen.
The key in large-field DFS contests, as always, is to get away from the “chalk,” or players who will be widely rostered. That means gravitating toward less popular game situations, some of which I’ve highlighted below.
Commanders at Eagles
Game total: 47.5 points
We have two games worth of data to overthink in determining who we might want to play in this week’s NFC title game. So let the overthinking begin.
The Commanders, with Jayden Daniels banged up, were 2 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 11’s loss to the Eagles. They were then 5 percent over their expected pass rate in Week 16 against Philly. Considering Washington beat the Eagles in Week 16 (36-33) and lost in Week 11 (26-18), one might assume the team will lean toward the winning strategy. That would include a lot more three-receiver sets and more aggressive downfield passing.
That Washington used three-wideout sets on 78 percent of their plays against the Eagles in Week 16 — well above their season-long rate of 57 percent — likely means Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus will see plenty of snaps and routes. Zaccheaus broke out in that Week 16 game, drawing a target on 25 percent of his routes and ending with 70 yards and two touchdowns, running half of his routes from the slot. Battling a groin injury he sustained last week against the Lions, Zaccheaus’ status will matter quite a bit in this weekend’s DFS machinations.
I’ve been skeptical of Brown’s breakout. I was unaware Brown has a long-simmering issue with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who remains angry about other receivers — including, somehow, Brown — being drafted before him in 2020. I would have gone in on Dyami in the Divisional Round if I had known the size of the chip on his shoulder.
There’s no denying that Brown has carved out a real role in the Washington offense. He’s been targeted on a healthy 26 percent of his pass routes over the team’s past three games and leads the Commanders in yards per route run over that short stretch. If the Commanders are going to matriculate the football against the pass-funnel Eagles defense, Brown is going to be involved. He will, naturally, be a very popular DFS option as folks look to save salary and jam a few high-priced players into their rosters.
It’s a less-than-stellar spot for Zach Ertz, the last great millennial tight end. Only the Giants and Cowboys gave up more tight end catches than the Eagles during the regular season. In two 2024 games against his former mates, Ertz saw a target on just 13 percent of his routes, well short of his season-long rate of 17 percent. Still, he’s out there running a lot of routes and could find his way into the end zone as one of the only two guys Daniels targets in the red zone.
Stacking a Washington running back alongside Daniels could make some sense if you’re going in on this game as the shootout of the weekend. Austin Ekeler over the team’s past three games has a slight edge in routes and targets over Brian Robinson; Ekeler is by no means dominating passing down work though. Robinson, meanwhile, has a 30-17 rushing attempt edge over those three games. It’s a nast matchup for Washington’s backs: Philadelphia allowed the third lowest rate of rush yards before contact this season.
Jalen Hurts picked up what seems to be a fairly serious knee injury in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Rams. Eagles head coach has been more evasive and cranky than usual when asked about Hurts’ championship game status. It makes me think Hurts’ mobility will be severely limited if he suits up, as ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio suggested this week.
That translates into another monster workload for Saquon Barkley, the engine of the entire offense, and perhaps more pass attempts in place of the usual spate of Hurts rushes. That could be a nice little development for A.J. Brown, who, as I mentioned in last week’s column, has feasted on man coverage. All of Brown’s biggest 2024 outings came against man-heavy coverage units and the Commanders played man at a top-10 rate in the regular season. Against the Eagles in Week 16, Washington played man coverage on a sky-high 58 percent of their defensive snaps. Brown, a voracious reader, could have lower-than-usual DFS rostership this weekend after managing just six catches for 60 yards over his past three outings.
DeVonta Smith had a not-hateful ten grabs for 70 yards in two games against Washington this season. He’s been more successful against zone coverages than Brown, making this a dubious matchup for the Eagles’ 1b receiving option.
Man-heavy secondaries haven’t been friendly to Dallas Goedert’s fantasy output this season. While he’s gone off a few times against defenses deploying lots of zone, man coverage usually means it’s AJB Szn. Nevertheless, if you’re stacking Eagles, Goedert would make sense as a relatively low-priced option. He saw a target on 17 percent of his routes against Washington this season, down from his 23 percent season-long rate.
Winning a large-field DFS contest often requires getting weird, and there’s no better way to get weird this weekend than to fade Barkley and stack gimpy Hurts with a couple of his pass catchers. Fading the guy who piled up 296 yards and four rushing scores against the Commanders this season will require a level of bravery rarely achieved by humans. But if you’re right, you’ll be oh so right.
Bills at Chiefs
Game total: 47.5 points
The Mahomes check downs will continue until morale improves. That much is for sure as the Chiefs enter their 28th straight AFC title game against a Buffalo defense that played zone coverage at the league’s eighth highest rate in 2024.
Mahomes, who had the NFL’s third lowest air yards per attempt in 2024, has an average depth of target (6.1) against zone looks that ranks 39th out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks this year. Kansas City was 5 percent over its expected rate in its Week 11 loss to the Bills, meaning we’re likely to see quite a few drop backs and the subsequent short pass attempts from Mahomes. That translates into Travis Kelce Szn first and foremost. The Wittenesque Kelce is fresh off a 117-yard, one touchdown performance against the Texans in the Divisional Round, and has now been targeted on 32 percent of his pass routes over the Chiefs’ past two games. When it counts — and it very much counts this weekend — Mahomes looks to one man, and that man has a low taper fade and runs like a dad chasing a trash truck at sunrise. Kelce is almost un-fadeable in DFS this week.
A Mahomes stack would require at least one more pass catcher since he doesn’t run much and, like Alex Smith before him, requires a ton of passes to put together a viable stat line. DeAndre Hopkins only ran a route on 13 of the team’s 32 drop backs last week against the Texans and did not catch his lone target, so he’s out. Marquise Brown, though he didn’t catch a pass against Houston, led KC in air yards and logged a route on 23 of 32 drop backs. If Mamhomes is going to hit a long one against the Bills — who play two high coverage at a top-five rate — it’s going to be caught by Brown or Xavier Worthy.
Kareem Hunt led the KC backfield in routes and target last week against the Texans. Neither he nor Isiah Pacheco are involved in the passing attack though. Hunt is your best bet for a short touchdown against a Buffalo defensive front giving up the eighth highest rate of rush yards before contact.
Josh Allen will face off against a Chiefs defense deploying man coverage at a top-10 rate and allowing 0.53 fantasy points per drop back while in zone, the tenth highest mark in the regular season. In Week 11 against Kansas City, Allen had a season-high 12 rushes for 55 yards and a touchdown. In fact, Allen had double digit rushes against every man-heavy secondary he played in 2024. Another ten or 12 runs for Allen in this one and he might be playable without a corresponding pass catcher.
If you’re stacking Allen, Khalil Shakir and, to a lesser extent, Curtis Samuel are the two most logical options. Shakir was Allen’s go-to guy against the Chiefs in Week 11, catching eight of 11 targets for 70 yards with a nice, scammy 4.8 air yards per target. Samuel clocked in at 4.7 air yards per target in Week 11’s win over KC, catching five of six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. The problem for Samuel is usage. He logged a route on 10 of Allen’s 23 drop backs last week against Baltimore. He’s a risky if low-cost DFS bet this week.
Dalton Kincaid is splitting snaps and routes with Dawson Knox. It makes both of them terrible DFS plays — nothing more than touchdown-reliant options if you’re betting on a back-and-forth affair between Buffalo and KC.
Ty Johnson’s run as the Bills’ primary pass-catching back appears to have met its end. James Cook led the team’s backfield in routes and targets in the Divisional Round and Johnson was held to four rushes while a now-healthy Ray Davis saw rushes, including a one-yard attempt for a touchdown.
One somewhat interesting lineup idea looks like this: Allen-Hunt-Kelce-Brown or Worthy with the hope Allen gets there via his rushing ability alone while Mahomes has another game filled with boring check downs.
https://sports.yahoo.com/dfs-stacking-report-2025-nfl-142814803.html
