Where Bruins stand in crazy Eastern Conference wild card playoff race originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Bruins have cruised to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the last seven seasons. But barring some sort of dramatic turnaround, the path to the postseason will be much more difficult this time around.
In fact, the Bruins are in serious danger of not qualifying for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Bruins entered Wednesday just outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They are tied with the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens with 52 points for the two wild card spots, but those teams have the tiebreaker due to having fewer games played and thus a better points percentage.
The Bruins are actually one of seven teams within seven points of a wild card spot. There were just four teams in the East within seven points of a wild card berth on this date last season.
We don’t often see wild card races this intense and with so many teams involved, but that’s where the Bruins find themselves.
Here’s a look at where the Bruins stand in the Atlantic Division and wild card chase.
Atlantic Division
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The Bruins could still finish third or even second in the Atlantic. They trail the second-place Panthers by seven points, and they trail the third-place Lightning by one point with two more games played. These are not insurmountable deficits, but it could be tough for the B’s to overcome either one.
The Bruins have qualified for the playoffs in eight straight seasons, which is tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the longest active postseason appearance streak. Only once during that span have the B’s made the playoffs as a wild card team. They typically qualify through one of the three division berths, but doing that this season will be a tough challenge.
The Bruins have just four more games versus the three rivals ahead of them in the division standings — two vs. Tampa Bay and one each versus Florida and Toronto — so there aren’t many more head-to-head opportunities to gain two points.
Wild Card race
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The Bruins are only one point above the Blue Jackets and two points ahead of the Rangers, but both teams have one game in hand. The B’s actually have the fourth-best points percentage of the teams in the wild card mix.
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, using an analytics model, does in-season projections for making the playoffs and advancing in each round of the playoffs. His projection for the Bruins, as of Wednesday morning, is for them to finish with 89 points and the second wild card spot. The B’s finish just ahead of the Rangers with 88 points in this scenario. Overall, Luszczyszyn’s model gives the B’s a 36 percent chance of earning a playoff spot.
That’s how close the race is — the Bruins have slightly better than a one-in-three chance of playing playoff hockey in April.
It’s kind of crazy to see so many teams with a legit chance of reaching the playoffs. Not all of the seven teams below the Bruins will remain in the wild card race the rest of the season, but four or five of them certainly could.
The Bruins have 34 regular season games left on their schedule, and nine of them are against the other eight teams in the wild card race, including two matchups apiece versus the Senators, Rangers and Penguins. Those games will be pivotal to the Bruins’ chances of securing a postseason spot.
From a strength of schedule standpoint, the Bruins have the 19th-toughest remaining slate, per Tankathon. The only teams in the wild card race with an easier remaining schedule are the Senators (No. 20), Canadiens (No.25) and Penguins (No. 26). The Red Wings (No. 1), Islanders (No. 2), Blue Jackets (No. 5), Rangers (No. 6) and Flyers (No. 10) all have one of the top 10 most difficult remaining schedules, which benefits the Bruins.
The last time the Bruins were in a wild card race like this was the 2015-16 season when they finished three points behind the Flyers for the second wild card spot. Bruins fans should expect a similarly close finish this time around.
There’s no reason for the Bruins to panic, but their margin for error is much slimmer than in recent years.
