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Mailbag: Who should be next for Islam Makhachev after UFC 311?

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Who’s up next to challenge for Islam Makhachev’s title? (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)

What should be next for UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev after his successful title defense at UFC 311? Which current champ is most likely to end 2025 without a belt? And who’s really harmed by inaccurate UFC payout figures?

All that and more in this week’s mailbag. To ask a question of your own, hit up @BenFowlkesMMA on X or @benfowlkes.bsky.social on Bluesky.

@jmprobus: What is next for Islam? Seems like the only realistic options are Oliveira or Ilia, with Belal still holding the WW title.

In a more just and fair world, I’d say it’s Arman Tsarukyan. He earned his title shot by winning a bunch of fights. His back injury forced him out of UFC 311 at the last minute, but it’s not like that was really his choice. If he was the top contender last week, why is he not still the top contender? It’s not like he’s lost since then.

But come on, we know how this actually works. Late withdrawals don’t make you many friends among fight promoters. That’s especially true if you’re a contender without a massive fan base.

The way I see it, the best possible option is UFC featherweight champ Ilia Topuria. He’s already hinted at going up in weight. He all but cleaned out his own division with consecutive knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. If we want a huge fight for Islam Makhachev, Topuria is probably the best option.

The second-best choice is Charles Oliveira, an action fighter who always brings the fun. But then, Makhachev already has one win over him. Plus, Oliveira’s current winning streak is holding steady at one and his last loss was to (checks notes), oh yeah, Tsarukyan.

If what we’re looking for is just another lightweight title fight, fine, book Oliveira or Tsarukyan. If we want something that feels really big and important, it’s got to be Topuria.

@JonaFreedman: 4 undefeated fighters lost their 0. Did the matchmakers F 311 up? Or are there positives from this?

One thing I’ve always appreciated about MMA is that we don’t have boxing’s relentless fixation on undefeated records. That’s mainly because there are so few of them in this sport. There are just too many ways to lose. You keep showing up and taking your chances with four-ounce gloves, highly variable referee stoppages and a grab bag of judges who may or may not be making up their own rules as they go? Well, then it’s only a matter of time until it doesn’t go your way.

So no, I don’t see it as a matchmaker mistake when unbeaten fighters get beaten. I mostly see it as inevitable, and also as a learning opportunity for young losing fighters, like Umar Nurmagomedov and Payton Talbott. If you’re undefeated in MMA past a certain point, it usually (though not always) means that you haven’t really been tested yet.

@indorfin.bsky.social: Who’s most likely to lose their title by the end of the year?

I thought this was going to be hard until I realized that you’d slipped Julianna Pena in there. It’s her. She’s the most likely to lose a UFC title this year. She’s sort of lucky to have one in the first place, considering how close her split-decision win over Raquel Pennington was at UFC 307. Now with Kayla Harrison in the mix and Amanda Nunes teasing a comeback? Pena’s best chance to hold onto that title is to take a very long cruise for the rest of 2025.

@Kib_KC: What’s your fight for a women’s BMF? Hard for me to make one for rn but Zhang Weili vs Joanna and Weili vs Thug Rose would’ve been great for the belt

If we think of the BMF title as a way to give more obvious stakes to a fight that doesn’t even need them because we just want to see for its pure violence potential, then I’d say something like Nunes vs. Harrison is perfect for it.

Obviously, either of them could be the next 135-pound title challenger right now. But if for some reason the UFC wanted to skip that and go straight to this marquee matchup? The BMF belt would sure be one way to do it.

@shadore66: You saw the reported payouts for UFC 311 right? Even if they aren’t 100 percent accurate, how sad is it that Islam isn’t even anywhere near making 1 million per fight? 200k for a 4x defending champion is mind boggling

Why do we even bother with the UFC payout figures anymore? While I appreciate that California at least tries to do some disclosure, unlike the other states that were quick to close up their books as soon as the UFC asked them to, we’re obviously not getting an accurate picture of fighter pay. I guess it’s better than those social media accounts that just make up the numbers, but still.

The real losers in this situation are, of course, the fighters. Every time I’ve talked to sports agents who come to MMA after being in other sports like football or baseball, they all mention how frustrating it is to have no idea what their fighter might need to do in order to raise their pay to the next level.

In the NFL, where players know what each other make, they can compare stats to see if they’re getting fair market value. In the UFC, everybody is mostly just guessing or else taking the company’s word for it.

Fighters seem to have bought the explanation that all the secrecy around pay is really for their benefit. Clearly, it’s not. We might like to know the real figures just out of curiosity. But for fighters, greater transparency would just be good business.

@JedKMeshew: Could Merab outrun a camel in the desert over distance?

Over enough distance, sure. But it would probably have to be such a great distance that we go from desert terrain to mountains and forests to parking lots and suburban sprawl. Eventually, we know that a camel does in fact fatigue. But about Merab Dvalishvili we know no such thing.

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