For the sixth straight year, the NBA asked me if I wanted to be one of the media members who votes on which players should start in the NBA All-Star Game. I said yes; here’s how I used my ballot.
(Quick refresher: You vote for three frontcourt players and two guards in each conference. Fan voting makes up 50% of the final result, with player and media ballots accounting for 25% each.)
All stats and records entering Tuesday’s games.
West All-Star starters
FC Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
FC Anthony Davis, Lakers
FC Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
G Stephen Curry, Warriors
The shoo-ins: As was the case last season, my ballot began with Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić, at this point seemingly in line to be the top two finishers in MVP voting for a second consecutive season. If you’re reading this, I probably don’t have to sell you on either of them too hard at this point, so I’ll try to keep this brief:
Gilgeous-Alexander is tied for the league lead in scoring, averaging 31.5 points per game on pristine 53/35/90 shooting splits, as the driving (and I mean that literally) force behind a Thunder team that leads the West, is on pace for 68 wins and outscores opponents by a mammoth 18.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor — the largest margin of any player in the NBA, according to Basketball Reference.
SGA has made All-NBA First Team the last two seasons and finished second in MVP voting last season, and he’s been even better this year — nearly impossible to keep from getting to his spots and doing whatever damage he wants once he arrives. Oh, and he’s also second in steals and top-25 in deflections for what has a chance to go down as the stingiest defense since the ABA-NBA merger. Total no-brainer.
So, too, is this friggin’ guy:
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Jokić is a literal handful of assists away from joining Oscar Robertson and his new running buddy Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to average a 30-point triple-double. He remains the most efficient point producer on the planet: third in the NBA in scoring at a career-high 30.1 points per game on a .648 true shooting percentage, which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy (a combination of scoring volume and efficiency that only a half-dozen other players in league history have matched); second in points created via assist; tied for fourth in points created via screen assist.
Every Jokić touch is an all-hands-on-deck nightmare for the defense: The Nuggets score an obscene 127.1 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions with the Serbian giant on the court, a rate miles ahead of even the best offenses in league history. It sounds like hyperbole to say that the big fella’s playing even better now than he did during his three MVP seasons. The stats, eye test and bottom-line results for a Denver team that sits just two games back of second place almost solely because of him, however, suggest that it might not be — that the best in the world just keeps getting better.
A month ago, the third write-it-in-Sharpie name on my ballot would’ve been Luka Dončić, averaging just under 29-9-8 on above-league-average true shooting and playing like a top-five MVP candidate for a Dallas team jousting with the Rockets and Grizzlies for the No. 2 spot out West. But with a left calf injury keeping the five-time All-Star out since Christmas, there’s now a gap of several hundred minutes, and double-digit games, between Dončić and the rest of the best of the Western guards — enough of a chasm for me to drop him from the starting five.
The search for a backcourt partner for SGA: A number of qualified candidates are in the midst of stellar seasons. Dončić’s partner, Kyrie Irving, has been characteristically excellent, averaging 24.2 points, 4.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game and shooting a career-best 43% from 3-point land. Anthony Edwards has admirably shouldered a downright Thibodeauian workload in Minnesota, averaging better than 26-5-4 to carry the scuffling post-KAT Timberwolves to a league-average offense that is, for now, keeping them afloat. Devin Booker’s having a down season by his standards — just 44.1% from the field and 34.5% from 3-point range, the fourth-worst effective field-goal percentage of his career — but he’s still averaging 25.5 points and 6.6 assists per game for a Suns offense that has scored at a top-seven clip with him on the floor.
De’Aaron Fox sits 10th in scoring and 15th in assists for a Kings team that has surged since Mike Brown’s firing (with which, in case you were wondering, Fox has loudly insisted he had nothing to do). The Clippers — a team that many pundits (cough, cough) all but left for dead after Paul George’s exit and Kawhi Leonard’s latest months-long absence — are fifth in the West, on pace for 47 wins, due in large part to James Harden continuing to rank among the NBA’s elite facilitators and Norman Powell, in his 10th season, blossoming into one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the entire NBA.
In the end, though, I came back to Curry. Because while this has been Golden State’s worst non-injury-ravaged season since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign, Steph himself remains awfully damn good.
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As rough as the Warriors have been on the whole, they’ve actually outpaced opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions in Curry’s minutes, scoring like a top-five offense with the two-time MVP on the floor. (For what it’s worth, that’s a better on-court net rating than Edwards, Harden, Booker, Fox and Kyrie without Luka, though behind Powell.) Advanced metrics like estimated plus-minus, box plus-minus, value over replacement player and DARKO all still peg Steph as a top-10-to-12 player in the league this season; he also leads the aforementioned pack of guards in player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes.
He’s played fewer games and minutes than the other contenders, but not by such a glaring amount (to me, anyway) that it should remove him from consideration — or overwhelm what’s been (again, to me) Curry’s superior per-minute, per-possession impact. That was enough for me to vote Steph in to start at Chase Center — a hometown hero getting his due in a season that’s been pretty light on reasons to cheer in the Bay.
Next to Jokić in the frontcourt: Davis, who’s 11th in the NBA in scoring, sixth in rebounding and third in blocks, leading the way for a Lakers team that, for all its ups and downs, is still in the mix for a top-six spot and within hailing distance of home-court advantage in the middle of the Western pack.
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Because of the wobbly-at-times arc of his career, I think we can get a little inured to the staggering weight of what AD produces on a night-to-night basis. Only seven players ever have averaged 25 points, 10 boards, three dimes, two blocks and a steal per game for a full season, and only three have done it more than once; Davis, this season, is on pace to become the fourth. If the company you’re keeping is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, and if you’re also a top-10-to-15 player by a slew of advanced metrics — PER, VORP, win shares, BPM, et al. — then you’re an All-Star.
The last selection on my ballot was the only one to come from a sub-.500 club. But as Nigel Andrews, the film critic for The Financial Times, wrote in his review of Hayao Miyazaki’s 2003 masterpiece Spirited Away, “Exception must be made for the exceptional.” And there is absolutely zero doubt that Wembanyama — who, as luck would have it, dressed up as the Spirited Away character No-Face for the Spurs’ Halloween game — is jaw-droppingly exceptional.
Wembanyama sits 16th in the NBA in scoring, eighth in rebounds and, of course, first in blocked shots. He is on pace to become the sixth player in NBA history to average 24 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks and three assists per game for a full season, joining five of the greatest big men of all time: Kareem, Hakeem, The Admiral, Shaquille O’Neal and Patrick Ewing. He has also made more 3-pointers this season than James Harden, Buddy Hield and Klay Thompson. He is 21 years old.
In addition to growing into one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the NBA, Wembanyama is also the panic-attack-inducing deterrent at the heart of a Spurs defense that smothers opponents like a top-six unit when he’s on the floor. Opponents have shot a paltry 49% at the rim when Wembanyama’s defending, fourth-lowest among 115 players to guard at least 100 up-close shots, according to Second Spectrum … and that only counts the ones opponents do take. Factor in all the shots they tuck back in their pockets when they get a glimpse of his all-enveloping presence in the paint, and his defensive impact borders on incalculable.
Wembanyama arrived in the NBA as the most highly touted prospect in decades, and man, has he lived up to every ounce of the hype; a starting spot on All-Star Sunday will only bolster his case to be the new face of the NBA.
West All-Star reserves
Whew. OK. Now that I’ve explained my choices for the part of this exercise that counts, let’s pivot to the portion that doesn’t: who I’d pick as reserves to round out the West’s roster.
Remember: While fans, players and media members vote on starting lineups, NBA coaches alone decide the makeup of each conference’s bench. To the extent that what I think ever matters, it doesn’t count for squat here. Which, if I’m being honest: Pretty liberating!
Here are the seven players — three frontcourt players, two guards, and two “wild cards,” which can come from either group — I’d pick to complete the West roster:
FC Domantas Sabonis, Kings
FC Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
FC Alperen Şengün, Rockets
G Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
G Kyrie Irving, Mavericks
WC Jalen Williams, Thunder
WC Norman Powell, Clippers
OK, let’s start here: LeBron James and Kevin Durant are going to make the All-Star team. They were second and third in the third round of fan voting, which is weighted twice as much as media or player balloting, and I feel very confident that they’re both going to get plenty of support from both of those constituencies, too.
And that’s richly deserved! KD’s sixth in the NBA in scoring, pumping in 27 points a night on characteristically sparkling 52/38/83 shooting splits; the Suns are 20-12 with him in the lineup, and a ghastly 1-9 in the 10 games he’s missed. And marveling at LeBron’s production solely by appending at age 40! would risk damning him with faint praise: Only one other player is averaging 23-7-8 while shooting 50% from the field and 40% from 3, and it’s Jokić. They’re going to get there, and they should, and that’s more than fine.
So: In the confines of my little mirror-dimension sandbox, where everything is made up and the points don’t matter, I decided to use those precious reserve slots to toss some flowers to players that I think would deserve to make it on the merits … y’know, if LeBron and KD didn’t exist, or if the league expanded All-Star rosters to 15 spots. (Which, in an era of actual 15-man rosters, plus two-ways and 10-days and whatnot, seems to me like an idea whose time has come. But hey, what do I know? I’m just the guy with the mirror dimension.)
You know who deserves an All-Star spot? A dude who’s averaging more than 20 points and six assists per game on 60% shooting — something that only Wilt, Jokić and Giannis have ever done — while also leading the league in rebounding and, somehow, 3-point percentage:
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Sacramento has outscored opponents by 6.2 points-per-100 with Sabonis on the floor, scoring like a top-five offense and defending at a top-10 rate, despite his famously shaky rim protection, thanks in part to his elite defensive rebounding. The Kings knew they could use some more floor-spacing at the 5 spot after adding DeMar DeRozan in free agency; Sabonis has already taken and made more 3-pointers than he had in either of the prior two seasons.
Sabonis is an elite screen-setter and roll man who finishes at a ludicrously high percentage from virtually all areas of the floor, hardly ever misses games and plays a ton of minutes — one big reason that all-in-one metrics like EPM, VORP, PER, BPM and win shares love him. He also brings a relentless physicality that establishes the baseline for a Kings team that, for all its coaching-change turmoil, has a top-10 offense and an above-average defense for the first time in 20 years. What Domas lacks in flash, he more than makes up with force — enough to merit a fourth career All-Star nod.
Joining Sabonis in the reserve frontcourt: The linchpins of the West’s second and third seeds, Şengün and Jackson.
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It’s reasonable to argue that a many-hands-make-light-work team like the Rockets — with eight players averaging between 10 and 22 points per game, with its success predicated predominantly on the NBA’s No. 2 defense — doesn’t necessarily merit an individual All-Star. But around here we both honor teams on 55-win paces and seize the opportunity to celebrate first-timers … especially when they serve as the half-court hub for a team that seems to have no business having a top-10 offense but does, when they’re averaging nearly 20-11-5 with career-best rebounding, assist and turnover rates, when they’ve made significant enough strides to be a positive contributor on that elite defense, and when they’ve become the straw that stirs the drink for a tough-as-nails playoff team that might look ahead of schedule to others, but that feels right on time inside its own locker room.
Yes, there are a lot of reasons why the Rockets have become as good as they are. But Şengün’s the biggest and best of them. He gets a nod.
So does JJJ, who’s playing perhaps the best all-around ball of his career as the constant for a Memphis team that’s seen Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and just about everybody else on the roster miss a bunch of time … and that just keeps kicking ass anyway.
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One silver lining to the Grizzlies’ injury-decimated 2023-24 season? Jackson got a ton of opportunities to stretch his offensive game as the primary creator and top offensive threat in lineups desperate for someone to generate good looks. He’s never quite recaptured the high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooting of his second pro season, but he’s now capable of scoring with his back to the basket in the post, facing up in isolation, cutting from the weak-side in Memphis’ new whirling dervish scheme, pounding the offensive glass, running the floor in transition and working either end of a pick-and-roll … while also still serving as one of the game’s most menacing weak-side shot-blockers and the heartbeat of a top-five defense. This is the most well-rounded version of JJJ to date — a consistent high-end two-way difference-maker — and it’s one of the biggest reasons why the Grizz, even amid another injury-loaded campaign, look to be all the way back to serious title contention.
The crowded Western backcourt mix: I went with Edwards in deference to his marriage of high scoring — 26.3 points per game, a blistering 42.8% from 3-point range on nearly 10 attempts a night, all career highs — with heavy duty, playing massive minutes every night to keep the Wolves in the hunt. Irving got the nod for his scoring efficiency, his peerless shooting, and his work in helping keep the Luka-less Mavs above water over the past month. Perhaps you’d prefer one of the other handful of guards I mentioned up top; your mileage may vary.
The wild cards: I made the cases for Williams and Powell two weeks ago, and I still buy them: J-Dub as both the second-best player on the best team in the West and a do-it-all monster capable of averaging 20-5-5 while literally guarding all five positions, and Norm as a smooth-scoring revelation, relishing the opportunity to take on the largest offensive role of his career and rewarding Ty Lue’s trust by turning in the best half-season of his life.
Only three other players are scoring as much and as efficiently on a per-minute basis as Powell: Jokić, SGA and Karl-Anthony Towns. They’re all All-Stars. In the mirror dimension, at least, he is, too.
Apologies to: LeBron, KD, Dončić, Booker, Fox, Harden, Morant, Ivica Zubac (one time for the big bruiser having a career offensive season while also backstopping that excellent Clippers D), and Fred VanVleet and Chris Paul (there’s a special place in heaven for undersized point guards who whip young teams into shape … even if there’s not always a place on the All-Star roster).
