UFC Vegas 101 may have been the official launch of the UFC’s 2025 calendar, but the year starts in earnest with UFC 311. Few title fights are a better combination than the two atop UFC’s kickoff pay-per-view event on Saturday at Los Angeles’ Intuit Dome. The main event spotlights reigning lightweight champion Islam Makhachev as he seeks a record-breaking fourth consecutive title defense against top contender Arman Tsarukyan, who Makhachev defeated in Tsarukyan’s promotional debut six years ago.
When it comes to MMA technicians at the highest level, it doesn’t get much better than that, as we saw in their grappling-heavy, Fight of the Night first encounter in 2019.
The co-main event provides similar degrees of skill as the newly-minted bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili makes his first defense against Umar Nurmagomedov.
Those two fights are realistically great enough on their own, but the preceding pairings have plenty of violence potential to set the tone. Let’s make some picks to get this year rolling in style, shall we?
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
155 pounds: (C) Islam Makhachev (-375) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+280)
I almost feel we should save the best for last with this card, but we’re getting right to the goods with this lightweight title fight, and it’s a lot to take in.
Right away, the odds don’t do this rematch justice — Tsarukyan should not be as significant of an underdog as he is. Ultimately, that’s a sign of just how magnificent the pound-for-pound great Makhachev has been. Although some previous Makhachev foes like Tsarukyan — or Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 — have offered resistance, the champ has firmly been in control of all his fights, and dominant more often than not. Makhachev has been a genuinely unsolvable puzzle at 155 pounds.
At age 33, there aren’t any signs of the champion slowing down either — and that’s why he’ll continue this soon-to-be historic reign. Makhachev has big double champ aspirations at welterweight, so Tsarukyan could be the last hope of any lightweight contender to dethrone Makahchev before he heads north in weight.
Tsarukyan has grown into a technically proficient — and almost sneakily powerful — striker throughout his UFC run. His bread and butter, however, is his wrestling, which was displayed immediately upon his arrival against Makhachev in 2019. The more veteran Makhachev was one step ahead throughout that three-round bout, but the experience will arguably help Tsarukyan more.
Makhachev has improved leaps and bounds since that first fight, mainly with his striking, but there’s only so much better one can get when they’ve already been training in the mountains of Dagestan with the Nurmagomedov family their whole life. On the other hand, Tsarukyan has been an MMA sponge. Have the past six years been enough for him to catch up? Against Charles Oliveira at UFC 300, Tsarukyan took a similar approach to Makhachev’s when facing “Do Bronx.” The only difference was Tsarukyan went three full rounds, and momentum had swung against him by the time the final bell sounded.
Imagining a finish here from either man is difficult, so I expect an enhanced sequel. The timing is good for Tsarukyan considering his American Top Team gym just dealt with Makhachev for the Poirier fight. If Poirier highlighted one thing about the Dagestani wrestlers, it’s that their takedowns aren’t as successful away from the cage. Expect Tsarukyan to try and follow a defensive route akin to his teammate. He’ll just have to find an edge offensively.
Tsarukyan is a future champion, but Saturday won’t be his night. Unlike the first fight, we’ll get a tense five-round kickboxing match with some clinch warfare mixed in. Makhachev and Tsarukyan’s strong mat work will cancel each other out this time, and the champion will remain one step ahead again.
Pick: Makhachev
135 pounds: (C) Merab Dvalishvili (+220) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-275)
Alright, listen: I’m a Dvalishvili believer. The guy is the champion for a reason and his winning streak speaks for itself. But Nurmagomedovs not named Abubakar simply do not lose. (So sorry, Abubakar.)
Dvalishvili has consistently highlighted one specific talking point in this matchup: Nurmagomedov’s level of competition. It’s a massive factor when speaking about your average fighter, and it’s fair to bring it up. Hell, I do it regularly in these previews. But in this case? It simply does not apply, because we’re talking about a legitimate Dagestani destroyer.
There’s no argument in favor of Nurmagomedov fighting better opposition than Dvalishvili because he simply hasn’t. But the same arguments we made against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Makhachev during their rises too. Their divisions — and anyone with eyeballs — knew they were those otherworldly great fighters. And what do you know? They went and proved it by becoming dominant champions.
It’s almost like winning 20 MMA fights in a row is wildly impressive and difficult to do, you know?
Plenty of interesting parallels can be drawn between this pairing and the main event. Thanks to the champion’s never-ending cardio, it’s no secret how relentless Dvalishvili is when pursuing takedowns. He’s the definition of a fearless game-planner. You know what the man is going to do; it’s on his opponents to stop it — and next to no one has been able to over the past six years.
But Nurmagomedov? From a technical standpoint, the undefeated Dagestani can match Dvalishvili just as Tsarukyan can with Makhachev. He might arguably even be better regarding move-by-move plays and the intricacies of a wrestling match. The biggest question with Dvalishvili though is whether his opponents can outlast him, and the answer to that tends to be no. No, they cannot.
Nurmagomedov, 29, is the next evolution of these talented killers under Javier Mendez. Like his younger brother PFL champion Usman Nurmagomedov, phenomenally talented wrestling skills are supported by striking that outperforms their legendary teammates. That’s the X-factor in this matchup.
Dvalishvili has improved steadily as a striker and showed it off more than expected when he won the title against Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 last September. But we’ve seen Dvalishvili get chinned before. Obviously, he managed to survive, but the right hands of Marlon Moraes and Henry Cejudo displayed an evident weakness that the Georgians carries.
Everyone’s chin goes eventually, and they’re even more susceptible when fueled by emotions like the champ is for this one.
That’s right. I’m taking Nurmagomedov to win via strikes. Have we not learned by now? These men are a different breed.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
205 pounds: Jiri Prochazka (+115) vs. Jamahal Hill (-140)
The UFC light heavyweight division has been weird since Jon Jones left it behind in 2020. Weird doesn’t necessarily mean bad, though. Especially when it comes to fun.
Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill both had short, snakebitten title reigns in the aftermath of Jones’ departure. After injury woes ended Prochazka’s time as champion, he was supposed to return against Hill — then Hill tore his Achilles playing pick-up basketball. Here we are now. Better late than never, right?
Flip a coin to decide who’s visiting the shadow realm in this one. While Hill’s career length falls far short of Prochazka’s, he’s put things together in the UFC more than he gets credit for. He’s also only fought to decision twice in nine Octagon appearances, though that pales in comparison to Prochazka, who has only gone the distance twice throughout his entire 36-fight career.
We love ourselves a legitimate kill-or-be-killed matchup over at Uncrowned, and this one ticks that box.
Both men have underrated grappling — Hill more so than Prochazka, as seen in their Glover Teixeira fights — but those ground games won’t be needed in this one. They’re going to duke it out on the feet, with Hill working behind boxing combinations and Prochazka throwing anything that springs to mind. (Some techniques — or lack thereof — seen from Prochazka’s arsenal are absurd, especially for a light heavyweight. I say that as the greatest compliment.)
Prochazka’s defensive flaws have been exposed a bit against the current champion Alex Pereira, however Hill is no Pereira, and Prochazka is the perfect blend of wild man to walk through most others.
Whether it’s a spinning elbow, head kick or flying knee, this fight has all the makings of a vintage, ridiculous, highlight-reel finish for Prochazka.
Pick: Prochazka
155 pounds: Beneil Dariush (+135) vs. Renato Moicano (-165)
How quickly the MMA world forgets.
Beneil Dariush is on the first losing streak of his impressive 29-fight career. Who did he lose to? Those slouches we mentioned earlier, Tsarukyan and Oliveira. Yet setbacks to two of the top-three lightweights in the world, combined with Dariush’s absence in 2024, seem to have created this misconception that Dariush is old and done — despite being the same age as the 35-year-old Renato Moicano.
We’ve seen the ceilings of both of these fighters, and Moicano hit his against significantly lesser competition. “Money” is a great roll right now, winning four straight, but the last two are relatively deceiving. Jalin Turner essentially allowed Moicano to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat after a huge Turner knockdown early, and although Moicano butchered and dominated Benoit Saint Denis for a third-round stoppage, he was still outstruck by the one-eyed Frenchman in the second round.
The only way Moicano wins this matchup is if Dariush’s MMA years have indeed caught up with him. If Dariush’s chin has deteriorated to the point that he can get melted by a known grappler who has just two total knockout wins in his career — Moicano’s last two — then we can justify any talk of him being done.
Until then, Dariush is better everywhere in this matchup and probably has a better chance of winning on the ground simply by not needing to stress about getting caught. He’s been one of the best grapplers in the division since he joined the UFC roster in 2014 and packs knockout power to boot.
I just don’t see what the oddsmakers are seeing. There are levels to this game.
Pick: Dariush
185 pounds: Kevin Holland (-105) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-115)
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder is our classic striker vs. grappler matchup.
De Ridder instantly became one of the best submission artists in the middleweight division when he debuted in the UFC this past November. Like Dvalishvili, there are no secrets with “RDR.” Don’t play with him on the ground.
Knowing Holland, he never will, even in matchups he should. (Stephen Thompson says hello.)
Holland has been manhandled by strong grapplers before. As talented as de Ridder is with his jiu-jitsu, I can’t foresee him dominating Holland like Khamzat Chimaev did, but if the former ONE Championship two-division titleholder gets “Trailblazer” down, that will be a wrap.
De Ridder is stiff and awkward on the feet — even if he magically knocked down Gerald Meerschaert — so expect the Dutchman to get hurt on the feet early, then drag Holland to the ground and find a submission. Regardless, he shouldn’t struggle too much with getting Holland down and eventually earning his second UFC win with a tap or nap result.
Pick: de Ridder
Preliminary notes
After his stellar 2024, Payton Talbott has the world’s support, and rightfully so. That said, Raoni Barcelos is a perfect veteran test for him at UFC 311, making these wide odds incredibly dangerous.
As Jailton Almeida looks to reestablish himself as a future title contender at heavyweight, Serghei Spivac is a good matchup but also a dangerous one like Barcelos is for Talbott.
Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira will be fun for as long as it lasts, and Ailin Perez has somehow climbed her way into a fight against a legit contender like Karol Rosa. Oh, women’s bantamweight, it pains me beyond words to see the shambles you’ve become.
Quick picks:
Bogdan Guskov (-350) def. Billy Elekana (+260)
Payton Talbott (-1200) def. Raoni Barcelos (+725)
Jailton Almeida (-500) def. Serghei Spivac (+360)
Azamat Bekoev (-200) def. Zachary Reese (+165)
Grant Dawson (-250) def. Carlos Diego Ferreira (+200)
Karol Rosa (-250) def. Ailín Pérez (+200)
Rinya Nakamura (-550) def. Muin Gafarov (+400)
Bernardo Sopaj (-275) def. Ricky Turcios (+225)
Tagir Ulanbekov (-350) def. Clayton Carpenter (+260)
