MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 311 co-main event between bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov.
Merab Dvalishvili preview
Staple info:
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Record: 18-4 MMA, 11-2 UFC
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Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
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Last fight: Decision win over Sean O’Malley (Sept. 14, 2024)
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Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas/New York)
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Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
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Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ Multiple sambo championships
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking technique
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid offensive wrestling
^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
+ Aggressive ground striker
^ Operates well in transition
Umar Nurmagomedov preview
Staple info:
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18-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
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Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
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Last fight: Decision win over Cory Sandhagen (Aug. 3, 2024)
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Camp: Eagles MMA (Russia)
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Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
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Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 2 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Deceptively accurate hands/shot selection
^ Usually works off single shots
+ Dynamic kicking ability
^ Competent from both stances
+ Explosive power-double takedown
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Quick reactive shots/chains attacks well
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Loves creating back exposure
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov point of interest: Snipping vs. spamming
The co-main event for UFC 311 features a bantamweight title fight between two somewhat contrasting styles.
Despite listing himself as an orthodox stance fighter, Umar Nurmagomedov is a competent operator from either side.
Preferring to fight from the outside, Nurmagomedov commands a plethora of kicks out of both stances. From prodding sidekicks to more powerful Thai kicks, Nurmagomedov is good about playing with the looks and levels of his attacks.
Once Nurmagomedov establishes a threat, the 29-year-old is smart about building off it by either going up high with a question mark kick or attaching sneaky counter-balancing punches to the end of his attacks.
Nevertheless, Nurmagomedov is not beyond being countered for his shifting sensibilities and will need to be on his best behavior opposite Merba Dvalishvili.
An aggressive fighter by nature, Dvalishvili has no issues when it comes to bringing the fight to his opponents.
Although Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has been steadily shoring up his striking under the care of Ray Longo and Syndicate MMA coach John Wood. Not only has Dvalishvili cleaned up on his general technique, but the 34-year-old has also been incorporating more things like feints to play off of.
Dvalishvili appears to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly utilizing his own awkward rhythms to throw off his opposition. Whether he’s connecting punches to takedowns or mixing in the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili can be a difficult character to get a beat on.
Dvalishvili may stage attacks a little bit too much off the backfoot for my liking, but the Serra-Longo product has shown that he’s not afraid to get dirty when he needs to.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Since grappling is an arguable crux in Dvalishvili’s and Nurmagomedov’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.
A flexible takedown artist, Dvalishvili has many tools at his disposal.
Although Dvalishvili traditionally favors single-leg snatches (like a lot of sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen in the octagon), the Syndicate MMA standout has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.
From hitting shots in the open to completing doubles against the fence, Dvalishvili can be a difficult customer to dissuade. And when Dvalishvili does get his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking to land strikes in transition.
Dvalishvili also appears to be a problem inside the clinch, making himself genuine nightmare material whenever allowed to establish the bodylock. That said, his opponent is no slouch inside of closed quarters.
Not many fighters have attempted to spoil Nurmagomedov’s perfect takedown defense rating, but the title challenger has shown some solid fundamentals and answers in the wrestling realm when challenged.
A world champion in combat sambo, Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded grappler who is competent and comfortable in multiple positions.
Training with his brother under the tutelage of his uncle, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, from a young age, Nurmagomedov possesses a lot of the translateable wrestling and sambo tactics you’d like to see from said background.
Whether he’s hitting reactive shots at the drop of a dime or entering in on a clinch, Nurmagomedov is good about chaining his attacks until getting his desired result. From shuck-bys to the back to balance de-basing leg play, Davlishvili will have a lot to worry about this Saturday.
Dvalishvili will also need to be mindful inside of scrambles given his propensity to expose his back when returning to standing positions.
As Nurmagomedov has already shown in the octagon, the Dagestani fighter is incredibly systematic and effective when it comes to breaking down his opponents from rear mount and riding positions.
From wrist feeds to wrist rides, Nurmagomedov demonstrates all the hallmarks of his teammates who came before him in regard to wearing down and finishing opposition.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the challenger, listing Nurmagomedov -330 and Dvalishvili +240 via FanDuel.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, pick
Although it can sometimes feel disrespectful to see a sitting champion listed as an underdog, I can’t say that the betting spread above surprises me. That said, I warn anyone who is completely discounting Dvalishvili in this spot.
Aside from appearing practically unkillable, Dvalishvili is a proven output machine that is difficult to look good against under any circumstances.
If Davlishvili can take down Nurmagomedov early and often, then this will likely be a much more competitive fight than what the odds are indicating. The potential problem, however, is that Nurmagomedov’s defensive instincts and fundamentals look to be well intact.
Aside from his small sample size of defending takedown attempts, Nurmagomedov also possesses offensive threats that help aid his efforts. From front chokes to front kicks, Nurmagomedov wields some solid tools that help dissuade takedowns.
Nurmagomedov’s front kicks to the body, in particular, should have a ton of play against the current champ given what we saw in Dvalishvili’s last fight. Couple that with the unfavorable turnaround time for “The Machine,” and I can’t help but side with Nurmagomedov in this spot.
I wouldn’t mind a 25-minute war between these two, but I suspect Nurmagomedov will score some sort of club-and-sub in Round 2.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov inside the distance
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, Makhachev and Tsarukyan are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. locally in Los Angeles). The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 311.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, pick: Will UFC 311 see a new champion?
