UFC is back for its first show of 2025 — and, of course, it goes down inside the APEX Facility in Las Vegas.
Believe it or not, UFC’s first event of each year since 2021 has been an APEX Fight Night.
The centerpiece of UFC Vegas 101 is a strawweight contender rematch between fan favorites Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. Unlike their first encounter in October 2019, the Brazilians are now established players at 115 pounds, with both still seeking their first shots at UFC gold. A win for either would move them comfortably up the chain and potentially one win away from that evasive opportunity.
A handful of notable names in the welterweight and middleweight divisions are also sprinkled throughout the card. UFC Vegas 101 is our appetizer for the big UFC 311 pay-per-view next weekend in Los Angeles, so let’s take a further look at what’s in store.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
115 pounds: Mackenzie Dern (+165) vs. Amanda Ribas (-200)
Our first UFC main event of 2025 feels like it’s getting unnecessarily overlooked. It’s a better and more intriguing rematch than it’s gotten credit for, but that’s to be expected when a stacked night of action like UFC 311 is right around the corner.
The first Dern vs. Ribas fight admittedly feels like ages ago — and to an extent, it was. Dern, a perpetual terror on the mats with her world-class jiu-jitsu game, was on an undefeated 7-0 strawweight on a superstar’s rise — then she ran into Ribas, who handed her loss No. 1 via a lopsided unanimous decision.
In only her second UFC appearance, Ribas, 31, styled on Dern. Although Dern had shown growth in her overall game, primarily with her punching power, Ribas was significantly more developed as an MMA fighter than her counterpart in 2019.
Ribas used her defensive grappling to force Dern into exchanges that saw the submission wizard eat punch after punch like they were biscuits at a Golden Corral buffet. That, of course, was made even easier thanks to Dern’s inability to pull off traditional takedowns — she went zero for six on her attempts.
The latter is still a strong weakness in Dern’s game despite having gotten ever so slightly better with offensive wrestling over the years. Dern typically tries to drag her opponents down with her body weight — no matter how ugly the technique may look — and her success rate varies mightily. That path to victory once again won’t be there against Ribas, and Dern’s technical striking is still a notch below.
Two extra rounds for a main event make this fight more interesting, because the opening three rounds will likely look similar to their first bout. As Dern has spent more time in the Octagon, opponents have become better prepared for her strong ground game. Although she’s been difficult to stop entirely in that realm, Dern hasn’t won by submission since a first-round armbar against Nina Nunes in April 2021.
Even if Ribas finds herself on the bottom, she’s never gassed terribly and has yet to be submitted herself. Dern has her work cut out again as she tries to overcome what will likely be a similar game plan to the first Ribas fight.
Pick: Ribas
170 pounds: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-145) vs. Carlston Harris (+120)
The 2010s were simpler times. Santiago Ponzinibbio was on the rise, putting Argentina on the map and welterweights on notice — then the dastardly injury bug took it all away.
Ponzinibbio hasn’t been the same since his seven-fight winning streak from 2015 to 2018. A once-brutal knockout artist, Ponzinibbio (29-8) is 2-5 in his last seven fights after his return from injury layoff in 2021. However, the record doesn’t tell the whole story at first glance. Three of those losses were hard-fought, wild split decision affairs against Geoff Neal, Michel Pereira and Muslim Salikhov. And in victory, Ponzinibbio started the downfall of the once-promising talent Miguel Baeza before an absurd comeback knockout of fellow veteran Alex Morono.
Some glimmers of past brilliance remain in “The Argentine Dagger’s” tank. His leg kick remains a lethal weapon, and his power hasn’t faded in the least. On the other hand, Carlston Harris has been a kill-or-be-killed competitor of the highest order.
The Brazilian should largely make this a gritty bout, utilizing his grappling with his brawling ways. Ponzibbio has, more often than not, been savvy enough to outlast fighters who try to grind him down. Chins will be checked in this one, but expect “Ponzi’s” to hold the longest, cracking Harris in the process.
Pick: Ponzinibbio
185 pounds: Cesar Almeida (-275) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+220)
It’s great to see UFC gave us an extremely “middleweighty” fight to start 2025.
Longtime hardcore fans will remember the welterweight days of Abdul Razak Alhassan and his art of violence delivery. Unfortunately, 185 pounds haven’t been as kind.
Alhassan only spent 37 seconds in the Octagon last year and saw his encounter with Cody Brundage end via no contest after landing some illegal elbows to the back of the head. It’s been one fight per year for “Judo Thunder” since 2021. Meanwhile, Cesar Almeida fought three times in 2024, making up for his gap of inactivity from December 2021 to August 2023.
There’s a lot more tread on the 39-year-old Alhassan’s MMA tires at this point compared to his 6-1 counterpart. That’s not to say Almeida is a spring chicken at 36; he’s an experienced kickboxer with 57 matches (47-8-1, 1 no contest). Having yet to be knocked out in his combat career, Alhassan has the power to be the first for Almeida. However, that’s essentially his only chance if he doesn’t employ a heavy wrestling game plan, which is unlikely.
Pick: Almeida
185 pounds: Chris Curtis (+165) vs. Roman Kopylov (-225)
“Action Man” Chris Curtis is being disrespected by the oddsmakers in this one.
On a quick side note, it’s funny to see Roman Kopylov billed below Almeida despite his recent victory over him. This is card placement logic at its finest.
Anyway, this will likely be our Fight of the Night, ladies and gentlemen. Curtis and Kopylov have no plans to wrestle, and bricks will constantly sling in Curtis’ direction. In his recent stretch, Kopylov has been a tough ask when not exploiting any grappling hindrances, which is undoubtedly where the oddsmakers concluded.
Curtis, 37, is vastly superior due to his experience and competition level in 43 career bouts (31-11, 1 no contest). The arguable biggest problem with Curtis has been consistency. Whether it’s his excellent performances in losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Brendan Allen or the knockout of Joaquin Buckley, the dude is very good. He just has to show up. It’s hard to imagine he doesn’t after the closeness of that big Allen rematch in his last time out — a split decision loss.
As long as Curtis can deal with the aggressive Kopylov, he should be able to counter and move away from big shots to land his own, outscoring or even putting away the Russian.
Pick: Curtis
145 pounds: Christian Rodriguez (+220) vs. Austin Bashi (-275)
Austin Bashi is one of those prospects.
The 23-year-old has been on MMA fans’ radars as a future UFC contender for a couple of years now. His 13-0 record speaks for itself, finishing eight of those wins (five submissions, three knockouts).
Christian Rodriguez, 27, has also shown promise, faring nicely in grappling wars with previous opponents. However, they’ve been much more competitive than the performances seen from Bashi, who’s just a strong young dude for featherweight. Expect Bashi to push the pace and dictate the action, maintaining one step ahead of “C-Rod” throughout.
Pick: Bashi
170 pounds: Punahele Soriano (+180) vs. Uros Medic (-225)
There’s some solid violence potential between this fight and the UFC Vegas 101 co-main event.
Punahele Soriano has been similar to Curtis with his inconsistency in a shorter span. As dangerous as power punchers came at middleweight, Soriano made his welterweight debut in his last fight — a unanimous decision over Miguel Baeza. In Uros Medic, he’ll have a willing dance partner to sling leather with and see who wins the tough-chin contest.
I mentioned our beloved “kill-or-be-killed” competitors earlier, and Medic falls into that category, having never gone to the scorecards in 12 fights (10-2). He’s been submitted in his losses, leaving Soriano with an “easier” path to victory. Unfortunately, that’s not his forte.
Ultimately, I think this will be a tough-man contest more than anything. Soriano’s lone loss via strikes came from body shots, as we’ve seen him take some wild punishment to the dome and keep coming forward. There’s a chance this is someone’s first knockout loss from head strikes, but I lean decision in either way, and Medic has the advantage with his striking defense and comfort at 170 pounds.
Pick: Medic
Preliminary notes
It feels like Thiago Moises is older than 29. That might be because the BJJ black belt has been around the UFC lightweight division since Dern vs. Ribas 1, duking it out with the likes of perennial top contender Beneil Dariush. Moises hasn’t reached the same heights as Dariush, but he still has time and has been a consistently fun watch — especially on the mat.
Unfortunately, Moises has been one of those fighters who loses to people he “should” lose to, like Dariush or, let’s say, Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez. Luckily for him, Trey Ogden isn’t one of those guys. So, if you like good graps, that should be one to watch — even if it’s one-sided in the Brazilian’s favor.
Meanwhile, Fatima Kline is a massive favorite over Vicktoria Dudakova. Listen, she’s a great prospect and should win that fight and be favored. But I said this before and after Mariya Agapova vs. Shanna Dobson. Unless you’re an anomaly of a prospect like Bo Nickal or Kayla Harrison, a prospect should never be such a big underdog.
Quick picks:
Jose Johnson (-185) def. Felipe Bunes (+150)
Marco Tulio (-550) def. Ihor Potieria (+400)
Thiago Moises (-185) def. Trey Ogden (+150)
Jacobe Smith (-550) def. Preston Parson (+400)
Ernesta Kareckaite (-275) def. Nicolle Caliari (+220)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-250) def. Bruno Lopes (+200)
Fatima Kline (-1000) def. Vicktoria Dudakova (+625)
Nurullo Aliev (-650) def. Joe Solecki (+475)
