Uncrowned’s editorial team knew they needed a writer with courage to tackle a piece that would rank UFC champions from most likely to be dethroned in 2025 to least likely. Unfortunately, the rest of the team had enough on their plates so the task fell to me.
A state-of-the-art bracket system has been implemented to make this process as tidy as possible.
The various champions will fall under one of the following categories:
-
Immovable: This champion is perceived to be as close to untouchable as you can be in a sport where nearly nobody has left with a perfect record.
-
Hints of Doubt: It’d be a surprise if this champion lost their belt.
-
Hazardous Terrain: There’s a strong probability this champion is losing their title.
-
Clear and Present Danger: This champion is likely to be dethroned.
Let the games begin.
Immovable Objects
Alexandre Pantoja (Men’s flyweight champion)
Nothing speaks to Alexandre Pantoja’s dominance at flyweight more than Kai Asakura, a man who never fought in the UFC before, being handed a title shot upon arriving to the promotion. As much as Asakura added intrigue to the bout and certainly played his part in the excitement around UFC 310, he was completely outclassed by the champion.
The UFC currently have Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno ranked first and second at flyweight, respectively — Pantoja has two victories over both. The next in line is Kai Kara-France, who also carries an exhibition loss to the champ dating back to “The Ultimate Fighter.” Should Pantoja defeat the Kiwi, the promotion will be rueing its decisions to scrape bonafide contenders like Muhammad Mokaev and Askar Askarov from its books.
Islam Makhachev (Lightweight champion)
Credentialed media spent most of past year asking UFC CEO Dana White how he could possibly have Jon Jones ahead of Islam Makhachev in the pound-for-pound rankings — and given Makhachev’s dominance at 155 pounds, there’s no wondering why.
Makhachev seems to have picked up where his Dagestan compatriot and lifelong friend Khabib Nurmagomedov left off, and although I feel like I’m in the minority who believe Arman Tsarukyan has a real chance of dethroning him at UFC 311, Makhachev is one of the jewels in the UFC’s MMA crown.
Ilia Topuria (Featherweight champion)
The man of the moment (and most rational people’s Male Fighter of the Year for 2024), Ilia Topuria is coming off a year in which he claimed the featherweight title and also knocked out two of the greatest fighters the division has ever seen, one of whom had never been knocked out before, Max Holloway.
With the keys to multiple markets ready to be unlocked by a native Georgian who has become the face of the sport in his adopted home of Spain, Topuria feels like one of the most immovable objects in the sport at the moment. Let’s hope he can keep his title tenure intact long enough for us to get a stadium show in the home of Real Madrid, Santiago Bernabéa.
Hints of Doubt
Alex Pereira (Light heavyweight champion)
I don’t necessarily believe the narrative that Magomed Ankalaev is a nightmare opponent for Alex Pereira. Many seem to paint the Dagestani contender as a larger Khabib Nurmagomedov. Although he certainly has wrestling in his skill set, it is nowhere near as efficient as the lightweight legend’s and he doesn’t seem to rely on his grappling to the same extent either.
If that fight was booked tomorrow I’d pick the UFC’s poster boy to have his hand raised, but the fact that it has been avoided for this long makes me feel some kind of way about the whole situation. Regardless of how I feel, Ankalaev’s challenge must happen in 2025, and it should be a fantastic main event meeting when it eventually does go down.
Zhang Weili (Strawweight champion)
Zhang Weili will face a significant threat to her reign when she meets Tatiana Suarez — a fighter long earmarked for UFC gold — on Feb. 9 at UFC 312. Due to Suarez’s history of pulling out of fights, we must wait with bated breath to see if the showdown will come to fruition.
At this stage, we’ve become accustomed to the strawweight champion competing once in a calendar year, but maybe getting one fight over the line in February will mean we could see Zhang more in 2025. Beyond Suarez, Virna Jandiroba is also bearing down on a title shot, giving life to the title picture. As well as that, it feels as if Zhang’s eventual move up to 125 pounds to challenge for a second divisional title is becoming more and more inevitable.
Valentina Shevchenko (Women’s flyweight champion)
Once again, Valentina Shevchenko struts into a new year as the flyweight champion after reclaiming her title against Alexa Grasso — and after climbing back to the top of the mountain, I think it’s going to be very difficult to knock her back down.
French flyweight Manon Fiorot is next in line for a shot at the crown, and given her sublime striking style, Fiorot’s eventual clash with “Bullet” will certainly be one to remember. However, with all the talk of Fiorot’s ability to upset the applecart against the champion, the 36-year-old Shevchenko will come into the contest with a bigger chip on her shoulder than ever.
Hazardous Terrain
Merab Dvalishvili (Men’s bantamweight champion)
Merab Dvalishvili might be the trickiest puzzle to figure out on the roster. His suffocating style coupled with his endless engine have proven too much for the great Jose Aldo as well as former bantamweight champions Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo and Sean O’Malley.
With that said, Umar Nurmagomedov’s wrestling credentials and stellar striking may represent his toughest test to date. The reason why Dvalishvili falls under our Hazardous Terrain section of this article is because of the emotion that the Georgian is approaching UFC 311 with. We have never seen a rival elicit this kind of reaction from the Dvalishvili, which could cloud the champ’s judgement when the cage door closes.
Belal Muhammad (Welterweight champion)
I witnessed Belal Muhammad’s emphatic victory over Leon Edwards from the front row of the Co-op Live and I’m still in awe of how methodically he went about claiming the welterweight title.
I have no doubt that the champion was rubbing his hands together as he watched Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry in December. Certainly, if that version of the Kazakhstan fighter shows up to challenge for Muhammad’s title, Rakhmonov will have his hands full against the champ. Yet, with the community seemingly counting down to Rakhmonov’s eventual title capture since his debut with the promotion, I believe “Nomad” will get the job done should he get his opportunity in 2025.
Dricus du Plessis (Middleweight champion)
Dricus du Plessis already has a lot on his plate as his rematch with Sean Strickland takes place Feb. 9 in Sydney, Australia. Their first clash was perilously close, but even if he gets through the outspoken American, the UFC’s long-awaited boogeyman awaits beyond du Plessis’ trip to The Land Down Under.
Khamzat Chimaev’s championship reign has felt inevitable since he debuted with the promotion in 2020. Although things looked shaky at times against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, he was back to his best during his brutal onslaught of Robert Whittaker. Whoever holds the belt when the time comes, they’re sure to have their hands full against “Borz.”
Clear and Present Danger
Julianna Peña (Women’s bantamweight champion)
Julianna Peña claimed the UFC’s bantamweight title with a controversial split decision nod at UFC 307 —and now has the unenviable task of defending her crown against Kayla Harrison.
Harrison has held “champ in waiting” status since signing on the dotted line with the UFC at the beginning of 2024. Despite Peña proving herself capable of big upsets, including her 2021 title capture over Amana Nunes, she must shock the world again to keep her title reign intact into 2026.
Jon Jones (Heavyweight champion)
We have officially entered a new phase of the Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall negotiations after reports surfaced about the heavyweight champion maybe or maybe not requesting $30 million to fight “The Great British Hope.”
Since Aspinall became the interim champion, I’ve been adamant that this would play out in the same way as the ill-fated Francis Ngannou vs. Jones fight. If you’ve forgotten that one, first White blamed Jones for wanting “Deontay Wilder money,” then it was somehow Ngannou’s fault. If this is the biggest fight the UFC can make, and Jones is the greatest fighter of all time — all White’s words — UFC should be paying Jones for it.
I think if the fight happens in 2025, Aspinall will win.
And if the fight doesn’t happen? UFC will strip Jones of the title.
