The Mets‘ ZiPS projections for the 2025 season — via Dan Szymborski — are out at FanGraphs.
Here are the key highlights…
OFFENSE
In his first year as a Met, Juan Soto is projected to slash .276/.426/.521 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI while being worth 5.8 fWAR.
Francisco Lindor is projected to be even more valuable than Soto, with him worth 6.0 fWAR on the back of elite shortstop defense and a 124 OPS+.
Meanwhile, ZiPS sees a bounce back year at the plate for Francisco Alvarez, who is projected to slash .232/.311/.433 with 20 homers.
The projection for free agent Pete Alonso, who is a good bet to return to the Mets, has him slashing .244/.337/.470 with 33 home runs.
STARTING ROTATION
Traditionally, the ZiPS projections for innings totals for starting pitchers can skew conservative, and that’s reflected a bit in the Mets’ numbers.
The projections have Sean Manaea leading the team with 144.0 innings pitched, to go along with a 4.31 ERA.
In Clay Holmes‘ first season as a starter, ZiPS projects a 3.66 ERA in a shade over 110.0 innings.
As far as Kodai Senga, who missed the majority of 2024 due to injury, he’s projected to have a 3.51 ERA in just under 140.0 innings.
BULLPEN
Closer Edwin Diaz is projected to have a 2.95 ERA while striking out 13.3 batters per nine.
Jose Butto (3.50 ERA), Dedniel Nuñez (3.51 ERA), and Reed Garrett (3.71 ERA) are all projected to have strong campaigns.
